The Euro made it to a serious support area. The heart of it is around 1.2250 so a deeper move into it might still be in play.



The curious thing about this layout is that it doesn't really matter if we get one, ore more, push to the downside, geometry indicates 1.2330 region as a serious correction level. What's even more interesting, if someone wants to play aorund with Fibs and MLs and adjust it now at 1.2250 (although it has not been hit yet), they will give additional confirmation of the 30s importance.

My view on the ES right now is super-duper long, but wary that it may need one more push to fully hit the best ABCD level. I am trying to come up with some scenarios for how this might play into the overnight. Otherwise, though, for now it's heavy emphasis on the long side.

Let's see, for fun, if that last post, posted as a somewhat key lower timeframe area was being hit, will turn it down sharply, as we many times see with the timing of my posts of this sort.

It did roll down a bit there into a complex correction, but then set a new high for the move.

The FDIC fund covers like $9 trillion in deposits last I heard. But, the fund has in the low billions, at one point single digit billions. I haven't kept up with the numbers as much lately, but it was something like that. So, perhaps one tenth of one cent of coverage on the dollar. There are, by the estimates I feel are most accurate, $1,600 trillion in derivatives (just under $800 trillion by the accepted conservative measures).

Now, with this bill set to pass by Friday and get signed into law, they will be able to attempt to shield those derivatives under the FDIC umbrella i.e. taxpayers on the hook. I think the idea is that once the FDIC goes bust, they liquidate the deposits, that will give them $9 trillion, and then the gov can print and cover the rest. But, geez, what would happen if they had to print $500 trillion, or a quadrillion? I think the idea is, if they see those deposits, and they can get to them, why not take them now, while the getting is good?

So, I expect a derivatives 'blow up' soon after, liquidating us all. Like Armstrong said, 2015 is the year it starts to unravel. I'm surprised they could hold it together this long, but the cycles said they would. The only reason the world keeps going on day by day, and the people in here keep trading, is that they don't think I'm right, or if they do, they figure they can't do anything about it anyway (they are right, they can't), so why not go on like things are normal (this is normalcy bias to an extreme ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias )). It's too bad it all has to come down like this...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/10/banks-win-big-time-another-bailout-is-in-the-wind/

4 tick below 1.25 during overnight and key lines not tested there. One more push deeper into this zone is very likely in my opinion.

Originally posted by MarcinO

So far so good. Euro is sitting on obvious, tested multiple times TLs ready to go.
1.25 is imminent in my opinion.

Nice running commentary on the currencies, Marcin.

For me, it's just long side bias, see what they do with it on the European open. It's looking like a run up until a bring it in for better prices in the AM scenario, and if they don't bring it down, cool, stay long side bias.

It is ready, timing-wise, to move soon, so the open time here is just right. We'll see.

Thanks, Jim.
Someone taught me well and I'm trying to take advantage of that.

Originally posted by jimkane

Nice running commentary on the currencies, Marcin.

Just woke up. I decided to cut way back on my late night posts, to try to get better sleep. I guess I just slipped. Anyway, the long is grinding up nicely. I expect more of the same as the night progresses. It's going to be exciting to see how they handle the AM. If it needs another leg down for the ABCD then they may just do that from a little higher, so grind until the AM and dump it in. If not, then they may grind up and bring it in a little for better prices, then go. And it may also be headed down much lower, in which case they may bounce it higher from the low today, and then hit it. Exciting stuff. All of it great for trading, in my opinion. Okay, back to bed. Even if I wake up again I'm not going to post. The action is getting good and I want to be fresh in the AM.

Crude has a super-key TL around 47, and I'd think they'd want to screw with that. Then the key area is around the previous low, 33-36 and change. If crude gets into the 30's I plan to 'go all in' in every way, shape, and form I can on crude. Whether I will have the nerve when the time comes to break the rules and put a goodly portion of my eggs in one basket will remain to be seen. Many will be looking for a repeat of the last time it hit that level, and that worries me tremendously. But, crude staying in the 30's for any period of time? That could only happen if we are in complete collapse mode, and that would have to include China, who would be willing to buy the entire world's supply almost indefinitely at that price. it's all very 'odd'.

Bottom line, crude is at a monster area right now. The 47 TL area is obvious. And the 33-36+ area is known to every person on earth, even the handful of people in indigenous tribes who have never had outside contact. Even they are talking about that level. So, all I can say is, this is ripe for insane levels of games. It's going to be a lot of fun, let me tell you that!