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Duane
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Having fun pushing the buttons on this program. But still found a nice ABCD !
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jimkane
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Thanks for starting the topic, Marcin. That's a nice chart, but the thing it doesn't convey is their temptation to sweep the lows from the 23rd and 24th.
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jimkane
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BTW, even though the ES tried five times at the new all time high, only to be denied to the tick each time, the Russell (TF) blasted through handily to another new all-time high. Look at a 1-min chart from the open. Holy cow.
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jimkane
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The Dow utility index is just smokin' a new all-time high again today. That's four new all-time highs in a row, and six out of the last seven trading days, and most of those new all-time highs are not nominal. The Dow composite also hit new all-time highs today, as did the MidCaps, complementing the Russell highs. The NASDAQ composite was a hairsbreadth away, and the ES tied the all-time highs. All in all another strong day for the market.
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MarcinO
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Right. I assumed that slight violation of lower TL is all it needs to continue.
So again - two-three point difference...
So again - two-three point difference...
Originally posted by jimkane
Thanks for starting the topic, Marcin. That's a nice chart, but the thing it doesn't convey is their temptation to sweep the lows from the 23rd and 24th.
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jimkane
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Just as an aside, I would think they will run this up into the year end, to get better bonuses. That is not as prevalent as it used to be, I think, because now it's all machines, but it still exists, in my opinion. So, I'm planning on 'up' into the Wednesday close. We'll see, though.
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jimkane
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Maybe Armstrong is right, maybe he's not, but he is the one, on most points, that most lines up with how I am seeing things. And I think we are going to see hell the likes of which we have maybe never seen before on earth. And I think it's going to be coming in his timeframe, starting next year and running real bad for four-plus years. At that point it doesn't just 'turn great', it perhaps starts to rebuild slowly (my view is lot more pessimistic than Armstrong's, actually, as I see more a martial law totalitarian government type scenario that lasts possibly many generations).
The one area I disagree strongly with Armstrong is what will happen to the stock market when the Big Bang hits. He thinks as the sovereigns default the money has to go somewhere, and it will go into stocks. If there is a huge quantity of money and it has to go somewhere, it could go into stocks, and if it did, we could, indeed, see Dow 43,000. The main reason I don't see this is because I simply could not, psychologically, handle that level of distortion in the market, and injustice (as it will have unintended consequences, especially on 'the little guy', of incredible magnitude). I understand it is not wise to let one's emotional feelings cloud sound analysis, but I am affected in this case.
Next, the assumption for a huge rise in the stock market is money transfers out of bonds into stocks. I suspect that can't happen 'one for one'. I think 'credit' will be extinguished i.e. money will go up in smoke. 'Money' that is, paper and electronic currency, have a value that is decided by people, collectively, as is the value of various hard goods/assets. If credit starts evaporating (this is 'deflation'), and people see no value in bonds hardly at all, the liquidity will dry up, and the 'depth of market' will vanish, like the flash crash, but much, much worse. So, in an orderly market one can slowly shift money from one asset class to another, and as one slowly declines, the other can rise as money flows from one to the other.
Now, look at a scenario where a ton of money has pumped up an asset class way up. A lot of 'money' is tied up there. If that money shifted to another asset class, that asset class would go way up. But, what if one day everyone wakes up and realizes all that asset class is a pipe dream, it's basically worthless. It's a zillion dollars invested in a bushel of tulip bulbs. Now, you tell me how those tulips are going to be converted back into estates, and those estates are going to rise in value, substantially, as money flows from tulips into estates. Not gonna happen. When the jig is up for the tulips the amount you'll get for all of them, every last one, will probably raise the price of one single estate (as the money flows, competitively, into estate purchases) by, oh, maybe... a hundredth of a penny.
I think it is going to be the same with bonds. This isn't an incremental thing, it a mass delusion thing. Everyone will believe, until the second when no one believes. Credit (from the 'shadow banking' system mostly) will be extinguished rapidly i.e. money will become extremely scare, the bonds will collapse, and who will be buying them? Money, which will be in short supply, will buy bonds on the super-cheap, and that money will flow into the stock market because it has to go somewhere? Wait, money comes from somewhere to buy the bonds, and puts that exact amount into circulation (so no net difference in amount of money that could potentially be in stocks), and that money, that didn't want to be in stock before is now in the hands of people who absolutely must be in stocks? And, to buy those bonds in the first place, that was ready cash just sitting around, not already in stocks? If it came from stocks then people sold stock to buy the bonds, the bond sellers now have the cash, they buy stocks with it, hence no net change for stocks.
Besides, the amount they will get for bonds, at ten cents, twenty cents, maybe (but I doubt it) thirty cents on the dollar, if it all flowed into stocks, big deal. Not to mention, where does all that money come from in the first place? And who are the new bond holders? Who did they all sell to? See, none of this makes sense to me, no less a way to get stocks up to Dow 43,000, ES 4,000. I'm just not seeing it, at all.
On the other hand, though, I do want to say, stocks could easily be manipulated up to a doubler or more from here, and I think quite easily, if liquidity dries way up (it's at less than half what it used to be in years past, and the depth of the market is almost non-existent i.e. pretty much only machines left), and they simply play machine games with it. I can create a fake stock market in my living room and make it go wherever I want. Big deal. Well, this market is very close to that point, and when the system gives way, it will fully be there, I think. So, making it go to a million will be nothing, no more difficult than me making my living room stock market hit any value I want. Hence, we may see Dow 43,000, I just don't think it will be in any way, shape, or form for the reasons that Armstrong says. I agree with the vast majority of what he says, but in some areas I strongly disagree, and this is one of them.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/28/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/
The one area I disagree strongly with Armstrong is what will happen to the stock market when the Big Bang hits. He thinks as the sovereigns default the money has to go somewhere, and it will go into stocks. If there is a huge quantity of money and it has to go somewhere, it could go into stocks, and if it did, we could, indeed, see Dow 43,000. The main reason I don't see this is because I simply could not, psychologically, handle that level of distortion in the market, and injustice (as it will have unintended consequences, especially on 'the little guy', of incredible magnitude). I understand it is not wise to let one's emotional feelings cloud sound analysis, but I am affected in this case.
Next, the assumption for a huge rise in the stock market is money transfers out of bonds into stocks. I suspect that can't happen 'one for one'. I think 'credit' will be extinguished i.e. money will go up in smoke. 'Money' that is, paper and electronic currency, have a value that is decided by people, collectively, as is the value of various hard goods/assets. If credit starts evaporating (this is 'deflation'), and people see no value in bonds hardly at all, the liquidity will dry up, and the 'depth of market' will vanish, like the flash crash, but much, much worse. So, in an orderly market one can slowly shift money from one asset class to another, and as one slowly declines, the other can rise as money flows from one to the other.
Now, look at a scenario where a ton of money has pumped up an asset class way up. A lot of 'money' is tied up there. If that money shifted to another asset class, that asset class would go way up. But, what if one day everyone wakes up and realizes all that asset class is a pipe dream, it's basically worthless. It's a zillion dollars invested in a bushel of tulip bulbs. Now, you tell me how those tulips are going to be converted back into estates, and those estates are going to rise in value, substantially, as money flows from tulips into estates. Not gonna happen. When the jig is up for the tulips the amount you'll get for all of them, every last one, will probably raise the price of one single estate (as the money flows, competitively, into estate purchases) by, oh, maybe... a hundredth of a penny.
I think it is going to be the same with bonds. This isn't an incremental thing, it a mass delusion thing. Everyone will believe, until the second when no one believes. Credit (from the 'shadow banking' system mostly) will be extinguished rapidly i.e. money will become extremely scare, the bonds will collapse, and who will be buying them? Money, which will be in short supply, will buy bonds on the super-cheap, and that money will flow into the stock market because it has to go somewhere? Wait, money comes from somewhere to buy the bonds, and puts that exact amount into circulation (so no net difference in amount of money that could potentially be in stocks), and that money, that didn't want to be in stock before is now in the hands of people who absolutely must be in stocks? And, to buy those bonds in the first place, that was ready cash just sitting around, not already in stocks? If it came from stocks then people sold stock to buy the bonds, the bond sellers now have the cash, they buy stocks with it, hence no net change for stocks.
Besides, the amount they will get for bonds, at ten cents, twenty cents, maybe (but I doubt it) thirty cents on the dollar, if it all flowed into stocks, big deal. Not to mention, where does all that money come from in the first place? And who are the new bond holders? Who did they all sell to? See, none of this makes sense to me, no less a way to get stocks up to Dow 43,000, ES 4,000. I'm just not seeing it, at all.
On the other hand, though, I do want to say, stocks could easily be manipulated up to a doubler or more from here, and I think quite easily, if liquidity dries way up (it's at less than half what it used to be in years past, and the depth of the market is almost non-existent i.e. pretty much only machines left), and they simply play machine games with it. I can create a fake stock market in my living room and make it go wherever I want. Big deal. Well, this market is very close to that point, and when the system gives way, it will fully be there, I think. So, making it go to a million will be nothing, no more difficult than me making my living room stock market hit any value I want. Hence, we may see Dow 43,000, I just don't think it will be in any way, shape, or form for the reasons that Armstrong says. I agree with the vast majority of what he says, but in some areas I strongly disagree, and this is one of them.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/12/28/understanding-big-bang-2015-75/
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jimkane
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Sums it up:
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-28/us-economic-growth-summarized-1-cartoon
Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-28/us-economic-growth-summarized-1-cartoon
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, here's something that I am sure doesn't mean anything (as Armstrong's war cycle turns up...), but it is curious. I'm just doing an approximation here.
Watch every 80 years what happens:
1780 (1775-1783) American Revolutionary War
1860 (1861-1865) Civil War
1940 (1941-1945) WWII
2020 WW III? The end of the downturn of Armstrong's economic cycle that start's a big drop at 2015.75. Four plus years of collapse and total hell historically leads to what ?
Probably it's all just a coincidence. But, here's what Armstrong said:
"A peak in domestic activity should appear in the 2017-2018 time slots but that will not be the end. It appears we will extend into 2020 before seeing any sort of a reversal of fortune." ( http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/23/cycle-of-war-civil-unrest/ )
So, maybe it starts and then bottoms around 2020. Still seems way too fast, but who knows. I think no way things are going to 'bottom' in 2020. He also mentions 2032, but that's when it is supposed to peak and shift to a 'private wave' i.e. no trust for government, and a move into private assets for that whole cycle. I'm not sure how all this reconciles, I just know that I feel we are headed for deep, deep sh%& and real soon the way it is looking. They'll probably just do more sweeping under the rug and money printing and stealing and keep it going for quite a while longer.
I just found out my homeowners policy will be jumping again. Last week I found out my medical insurance will be jumping. I went to buy some almonds (just picking one thing, as an example) and they jumped up big. Olive oil, well, there is supposed to be some bad weather that affected the crops, that's a doubler. I'm just getting pretty tired of all this, and the SHTF hasn't started yet. What will happen when it does? It's the darnedest deflation I've ever seen, the prices of everything I buy keep blasting up, and the Fed wants them to blast up even faster and higher so that we don't have 'deflation'. Sounds right to me. All I know is this whole thing is just messed up beyond belief and it will either be death by a thousand cuts, slow torture, or it will finally go over the cliff and swoosh us, but it's going to happen. Sorry.
Source: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/23/cycle-of-war-civil-unrest/
Watch every 80 years what happens:
1780 (1775-1783) American Revolutionary War
1860 (1861-1865) Civil War
1940 (1941-1945) WWII
2020 WW III? The end of the downturn of Armstrong's economic cycle that start's a big drop at 2015.75. Four plus years of collapse and total hell historically leads to what ?
Probably it's all just a coincidence. But, here's what Armstrong said:
"A peak in domestic activity should appear in the 2017-2018 time slots but that will not be the end. It appears we will extend into 2020 before seeing any sort of a reversal of fortune." ( http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/23/cycle-of-war-civil-unrest/ )
So, maybe it starts and then bottoms around 2020. Still seems way too fast, but who knows. I think no way things are going to 'bottom' in 2020. He also mentions 2032, but that's when it is supposed to peak and shift to a 'private wave' i.e. no trust for government, and a move into private assets for that whole cycle. I'm not sure how all this reconciles, I just know that I feel we are headed for deep, deep sh%& and real soon the way it is looking. They'll probably just do more sweeping under the rug and money printing and stealing and keep it going for quite a while longer.
I just found out my homeowners policy will be jumping again. Last week I found out my medical insurance will be jumping. I went to buy some almonds (just picking one thing, as an example) and they jumped up big. Olive oil, well, there is supposed to be some bad weather that affected the crops, that's a doubler. I'm just getting pretty tired of all this, and the SHTF hasn't started yet. What will happen when it does? It's the darnedest deflation I've ever seen, the prices of everything I buy keep blasting up, and the Fed wants them to blast up even faster and higher so that we don't have 'deflation'. Sounds right to me. All I know is this whole thing is just messed up beyond belief and it will either be death by a thousand cuts, slow torture, or it will finally go over the cliff and swoosh us, but it's going to happen. Sorry.
Source: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/08/23/cycle-of-war-civil-unrest/
