Firing it up. Not much to say except I expect the action to be wild, in a 'good' way. Lots of volatility, lots of action.

And as I suspected, something wasn't 'right' for this big bullish ABCD. Right on cash close they monkey-hammer the ES to a new low for the entire move.

That horrendously vicious shake send it just about right to the 1.000 ABCD level. Maybe they will gun it now a bit, since that got pretty much everybody out, I'd think. It will be interesting to see.

My gut read sense of the situation here is that this is on its way down to one of those lower levels. But, I'm watching the clues in here because this is a very significant pattern and level in here.

I'm sure this won't matter at all. Nothing does. The market will go up for the rest of eternity. How should I phrase this, let me see... Yes, I think stocks have reached a permanently high plateau. Yeah, that sounds about right. Time to go get my shoes shined, see what my shoe shine boy thinks of some various stocks.





Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/april-anxiety-75-year-itch

As they show in the above source, the S&P is at a 1.618 ext ret of the entire previous bear. Nope, not extended at all.

Nope, doesn't matter at all. Look at the previous two major swing points, and think about what happened around there. I am sure this chart has risen since 9/2014, too, so it's likely higher than the 2007 peak at this point. Like I said, doesn't matter, right?





Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/how-fed-has-failed-nation-one-chart (although they have sourced it from oftwominds.com and Charles Martin Smith)

Here's one of the most accurate quotes I have ever heard, from the above article:

"There you have it: the Fed has lowered productivity and GDP and stripmined savers, widows and orphans to further enrich the obscenely wealthy."

Yep, that just about sums it up. The bigger picture, is, well, bigger, but that's a good start.

Look at that ES chart. Say what? The old Kane gut does it again. Suh-woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh. All this right off that area I mentioned before. Hard to believe we were 48.25 higher yesterday. And hard to believe the Euro didn't move a muscle as the ES cratered there. When that bullish ABCD area gave way it was clear to all it was over. I wonder what inane news item 'caused' the drop... Tankan Manufacturing Index out of Japan? Followed by no big boost in the Chinese PMI? Yeah, that would be the story they tell. In reality, this thing is going to fall of its own weight, being an overweight fat pig bloated lead balloon higher than Mt. Everest, and nothing below it but air. When the day comes, maybe from Dow 43,000, who knows, maybe from here, it will be remembered as long as there are still human history records and someone left to read them. Mark my words on that one.

Originally posted by jimkane

My gut read sense of the situation here is that this is on its way down to one of those lower levels. But, I'm watching the clues in here because this is a very significant pattern and level in here.

It stopped dead one tick from the previous big low there. I'd expect a big pop off that. Now it has another bearish ABCD here, and we shall see. I'm definitely long side bias in the very (very) short term right now. Dead cat bounce. A very dead cat. Then we see. You never know, but I'm in the mode of sell every rip it gives relentlessly.

My question is will the ES finish making it all back very shortly? I think so. I'm betting on it.

That reaction in the ES to the jobs report really was something. The higher the Euro moves, the more excited I get for the short side. I think I would get a lot more pleasure riding the Euro down to the 80's, and into its final end as a currency, than I might get from riding the ES down to 400. Okay, well, it would be a tie, I guess. None of those emotions fit well on a trader, but I'm only human. As long as I can separate the moves I'd like to see emotionally from what the technicals and such say about what movement the odds favor at this moment, I think it's okay.