RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
Great thoughts agreeing the question of prediction jim. It is exactly as you laid it out: a trader in question has a very good intraday trend following system that relies on a trigger to get in, an initial stop, and then a failure to get out based largely on emas. He is an engineer and seems to think in a linear way. He also doesn't understand the concept of target trading, how anyone calls out areas of inflection for potential turns, entries and exits since it's not part of his system. He claims you can't predict price action, so target trading isn't possible. Anothe trader and I, who both have very different tools, have shown over and over how we know our target exit areas when we enter a trade. When we point out that by choosing to enter a trade he is in fact making a prediction, he says no, it's impossible to predict. And one of his supposed beefs with identifying targets is that he's afraid of missing the monster move.
What you laid out addresses all of this really well. Good thoughts. The debate has boiled down to the linguists vs the engineers, but as you say, it's much more. It's a question of linear thinking vs probabilistic thinking.
What you laid out addresses all of this really well. Good thoughts. The debate has boiled down to the linguists vs the engineers, but as you say, it's much more. It's a question of linear thinking vs probabilistic thinking.
