The Pound may need one more move up to 1.5170-80 before a larger move down.


After that a further move up cannot be excluded to 1.5270 - 1.53.

There is nice support area at 68 for the ES.

So the Pound didn't need a fakeout to continue down. Next level at 1.5020-30.

If you look at the 5 minute chart, iwm is in a key area to turn up, where:

113.36 – 120.07 = .618 at 115.92
116.14 – 117.93 = .886 at 116.34

A look at the 60 minute and the daily show potential in both directions, with the bull scenario showing price getting picked up at shallower and shallower retracements, and targets up around 123 and 126 if it can get over 120 and stay there.

The bear scenario is also in play with a bear wedge in place and the lower trend line breaking for a second time, and price reversing at the red upper trend line where:

128.19 – 106.99 = .618 at 120.09
118.55 – 106.99 = 1.128 at 120.03
119.36 – 113.36 = 1.128 at 120.13

2x the move from 119.36 – 113.36 = 108.07, where 120.07 – 12.00, and 106.99 – 120.07 = .886 at 108.48

With timing factor now, this level is now at 1.5010-20.

Originally posted by MarcinO

So the Pound didn't need a fakeout to continue down. Next level at 1.5020-30.

Nice stuff, crew.

"This important event falls at a peculiar time—less than 48 hours before the largest option expiry in many years. There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market."

"What does this mean? Considering that the bulk of the puts have been layered by the program traders themselves, including CTA trend-followers, and since the vol surface of the market will be well-known to everyone in advance, there is a very high probability the implied "stop loss" level will be triggered, and the market could trade to a level equivalent to the strike price, somewhere in the 1,800 area, or nearly 200 points below current levels."

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-07/beware-massive-stop-loss-jpms-head-quant-warns-unexpected-downside-catalyst-looms-ne

Just sayin'...

This has an 'about to get monkey-hammered and pommeled into oblivion' look in here right now...

I understand this comment is absolutely useless when I mention what I am about to mention. This tends to happen when they plan to run it the other way. It's a sucker trap. So, the only use the comment really has is that something usually does happen, in my experience, when that look appears. My play this time is for the actual hammering, not the trap fake. We'll see.

For this I mean on the very short-term. Hammered on the 1-min chart, for a strong leg under the LOD type of thing.