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OR noodling on a rainy weekend


Most of us it seems are trading some version of an OR breakout. Some are trading only ES and some, like I am trading ES and CL.

CL has been a revelation so I went back and looked at a few random months in the past to see how it would fare compared to ES.

The rules I used are as follows. 1M OR. All in/All out.

1st ES target equals extension of OR range. If that was a win, done. If that was a loser, the next break was taken with a target of 2X OR range extension (gets between +/- 2-4 range). If 2nd trade failed, 3rd breakout was taken, again 2X target. OR > 2 points was passed on.

1st CL target was 5 ticks. If that was a win, done. If it failed, next trade was taken with target of 1/2 OR range (larger than 5 ticks). 3rd trade never came into play.

3 months worth of trades comes in with ES having 50 winners and 33 losers for a gross total of $1,035 per contract.
The same time frame for CL comes in with 48 wins and 4 losses for a gross total of $1,880 per contract.

The kicker is that for my account the margin required for CL is slightly more than 50% of the margin required for ES. So for every 1 ES that I can trade, I am able to trade 2 CL contracts. So for equal margin the totals are $3,760 for CL to $1,035 for ES.

Food for thought, enjoy today's football!
Big Mike, what are the stops that you use for CL and ES? What would have been your CL trades today? CL did hit the 2:00 am CT OR numbers today. Thanks in advance.
My stops are the other end of the first 1M candle. Today would have been a loser and will be noted as such. I did not trade today felt not enough action would be present, like yesterday where I did take a loser.

Final totals for 3 months backtest and 7 weeks live trading are 75-11. 2,350 Net per contract which is 93% return of the margin amount required by my broker to trade CL.

Extrapolated out that would be 254% return over a full year.

Extrapolating can be very dicey however. What I am doing is adding a contract every time I hit another $2,500 rather than adding new money. I will trade as many contracts as I can build up. With multiples, one can grow the contracts quite quickly. At 5 contracts, it is roughly 4 weeks to add a contract and time continues to reduce. This might be a doozy of an experiment.

Good luck to all and a happy, healthy and safe New Year!!!
Updated results. 83-12 87% win rate

27.00 profit per contract per trade.

Net gain has added 1 contract.

It "should" take 45 trades to add another contract. Approximately around April 30 ish

Good luck to all.
Big Mike what type of orders are you using to enter/exit trade?

thanks
duck
Stop order to enter, limit to exit.
Originally posted by duck

Big Mike what type of orders are you using to enter/exit trade?

thanks
duck
Im going to sim trade this. thanks Big mike
Today euro open 59.57 to 59.55 thats the 3.01 candle
CL market open 58.78 - 58.68
the range is more than 15 ticks . so No trade

I assume the idea here is the US CL open should be within 15 ticks of the euro cl open


will post this daily

Thanks to Big mike
Originally posted by tintin

Im going to sim trade this. thanks Big mike
Today euro open 59.57 to 59.55 thats the 3.01 candle 2:00AM CT= 58.95-5899
CL market open 58.78 - 58.68 RTH Open= 58.59; so a long bias
the range is more than 15 ticks . so No trade Range was 15 ticks, took long above 1st 1M which was the open

I assume the idea here is the US CL open should be within 15 ticks of the euro cl open


will post this daily

Thanks to Big mike


Went long for 5 ticks @8:03 to 8:05 CT

You can trade any way you wish. You may have a better setup.

Good luck to all!
is this today(2/15) or yesterday(2/14) Bigmike?

I didn't get what you are saying?

Can u please elaborate please

Thanks

Originally posted by Big Mike

Originally posted by tintin

Im going to sim trade this. thanks Big mike
Today euro open 59.57 to 59.55 thats the 3.01 candle 2:00AM CT= 58.95-5899
CL market open 58.78 - 58.68 RTH Open= 58.59; so a long bias
the range is more than 15 ticks . so No trade Range was 15 ticks, took long above 1st 1M which was the open

I assume the idea here is the US CL open should be within 15 ticks of the euro cl open


will post this daily

Thanks to Big mike


Went long for 5 ticks @8:03 to 8:05 CT

You can trade any way you wish. You may have a better setup.

Good luck to all!
That was for 2/14

2/15 was a loser twice
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