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OR noodling on a rainy weekend


Most of us it seems are trading some version of an OR breakout. Some are trading only ES and some, like I am trading ES and CL.

CL has been a revelation so I went back and looked at a few random months in the past to see how it would fare compared to ES.

The rules I used are as follows. 1M OR. All in/All out.

1st ES target equals extension of OR range. If that was a win, done. If that was a loser, the next break was taken with a target of 2X OR range extension (gets between +/- 2-4 range). If 2nd trade failed, 3rd breakout was taken, again 2X target. OR > 2 points was passed on.

1st CL target was 5 ticks. If that was a win, done. If it failed, next trade was taken with target of 1/2 OR range (larger than 5 ticks). 3rd trade never came into play.

3 months worth of trades comes in with ES having 50 winners and 33 losers for a gross total of $1,035 per contract.
The same time frame for CL comes in with 48 wins and 4 losses for a gross total of $1,880 per contract.

The kicker is that for my account the margin required for CL is slightly more than 50% of the margin required for ES. So for every 1 ES that I can trade, I am able to trade 2 CL contracts. So for equal margin the totals are $3,760 for CL to $1,035 for ES.

Food for thought, enjoy today's football!
0 for 2 today.
Originally posted by Big Mike

I wanted to go long CL and did. CL did not.

Loser .10
Commiserations Mike, I wasnt able to be in front of the pc for the open so no trades for me.... I have been noticing that in the o/n the cl does keep returning thru to the euro open most days ,, ( i have only been watching this week so far,, so not a big range to make a decision on) I will try to find the time to look back into history for more evidence of same..........
3rd try was a charm for .22
Originally posted by brent.t

Commiserations Mike, I wasnt able to be in front of the pc for the open so no trades for me.... I have been noticing that in the o/n the cl does keep returning thru to the euro open most days ,, ( i have only been watching this week so far,, so not a big range to make a decision on) I will try to find the time to look back into history for more evidence of same..........
Update through 11/28

CL 62-6
ES 59-39

Currently small short bias for CL
I'm also looking at the days when CL does not hit EURO OR and seeing if the 2nd break-the other direction- is profitable.

Good luck to all.
Thank you for posting and keeping track. Obviously, I am interested in CL. I am assuming 62-6 is based on the rules as set out in your original post? Just curious if the number contains any discretionary aspects of trading or simply following the rules as set out originally.
Rules based as posted no discretionary.
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