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OR noodling on a rainy weekend


Most of us it seems are trading some version of an OR breakout. Some are trading only ES and some, like I am trading ES and CL.

CL has been a revelation so I went back and looked at a few random months in the past to see how it would fare compared to ES.

The rules I used are as follows. 1M OR. All in/All out.

1st ES target equals extension of OR range. If that was a win, done. If that was a loser, the next break was taken with a target of 2X OR range extension (gets between +/- 2-4 range). If 2nd trade failed, 3rd breakout was taken, again 2X target. OR > 2 points was passed on.

1st CL target was 5 ticks. If that was a win, done. If it failed, next trade was taken with target of 1/2 OR range (larger than 5 ticks). 3rd trade never came into play.

3 months worth of trades comes in with ES having 50 winners and 33 losers for a gross total of $1,035 per contract.
The same time frame for CL comes in with 48 wins and 4 losses for a gross total of $1,880 per contract.

The kicker is that for my account the margin required for CL is slightly more than 50% of the margin required for ES. So for every 1 ES that I can trade, I am able to trade 2 CL contracts. So for equal margin the totals are $3,760 for CL to $1,035 for ES.

Food for thought, enjoy today's football!
Big Mike, what are the stops that you use for CL and ES? What would have been your CL trades today? CL did hit the 2:00 am CT OR numbers today. Thanks in advance.
My stops are the other end of the first 1M candle. Today would have been a loser and will be noted as such. I did not trade today felt not enough action would be present, like yesterday where I did take a loser.

Final totals for 3 months backtest and 7 weeks live trading are 75-11. 2,350 Net per contract which is 93% return of the margin amount required by my broker to trade CL.

Extrapolated out that would be 254% return over a full year.

Extrapolating can be very dicey however. What I am doing is adding a contract every time I hit another $2,500 rather than adding new money. I will trade as many contracts as I can build up. With multiples, one can grow the contracts quite quickly. At 5 contracts, it is roughly 4 weeks to add a contract and time continues to reduce. This might be a doozy of an experiment.

Good luck to all and a happy, healthy and safe New Year!!!
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