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Seasonals and cycles have been doing there job thru bloody September, and scary October. Like Buffet says " buy when others are fearful. I dont think we`re there yet, but we`re getting close. Review past posts and you see the aggregate seasonals , midterm seasonals, and 4 year " sweet spot" are soon turning straight up for the November-December time period. Ive showed where one year from entering a bear mrkt. we are 20-22% higher. Heres another little tidbit to show that this late 2022 period could be a great buying oppurtunity. Light at the end of the tunnel? Anytime in the past 70 years when the market was down 25% (as we are now) , 3 years later we were ALWAYS much higher (somewhere north of 35%) and 5 years later the returns are stellar!
Who cares about the macro stuff , right? Traders want to know about the next few hours. Currently we are in a negative posture as we proceed to the open.
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da numbers
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pre open
trying to sell 3610...probably too late
now on a sell (30 min).. and indicators have room to move! Black avg of cumulative ticks is around -600
i`ll be a seller at 3599.75
thats why i use an initial stop of 10 points... one tick away! Iguess i should bail out at breakeven or close but ive gone this far so i will hold short for now.
suopped and watching
I willt try again at 3622. if it gets there
From Stocktraders Almanac: Best Six Months Up 18-0 Midterm Years - Going back to 1950 the Best Six Months has is best performance from November of the Midterm year to April of the Pre-Election year, by a factor of three. And none of the other years of the 4-year cycle had zero losses.
stopped out for a 7 point loss. The es just broke a small trendline and ticks remain strong here so bulls have more power than i thought.And of course the Mon-Tues low could already be in.
Imust say the rebound from the Mon-Tues low has been impressive, but we`ll see if ppi affects it tomorrow. In the meantime im content to watch although any move down to 3617 gets me long.