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ES short term trading 6-11-10


The Numbers:


If we open within the 74 - 83.50 we may get two sided chop around trade...especially if we can't stay above the 83.50 high so be on the lookout for that concept...Many will want to try and sell the first rally up....I will! It seems like it will be a tough battle to go up from here...

1093 - 96 ***** key Resistence, RAT, R1 and minimum 3 WAR target

86 - 87.50 Rat and Gap days low...

81.25 - 83.50 Rat and PD high

1074 - 1075 ******A Rat, POC the PV and it was the origination point of the break out YD...the key to watch

1067 - 1068.75 Rat and YD low *****

The 75 and 68.75 are the most important RATs of the day because they are support. We need to hold those if the 3 WAR is going to hit it's upside minimum target which is 1093 as per September.


1061.25 *** S1 and RAT
Full 3 DAR is 21.25 points and 80% is 17 points...so will once again trade 2- 3 Rats. The Value area has contracted if we compare Thursday and Wednesday so that isn't the greatest sign that this brief two day rally is that strong. Normally you want to see the Value area expand as it draws in different time frame traders who want to get on board for longer moves....Not a perfect concept but one to be aware of.

Low range O/N so far ahead of the 8:30 report.
FWIW

all my comments about the SEP (U) contract.

MATD today?
can yesterday be considered a trend day? I know gains were big but was there enough consistency to the rise to call it a trend day?

I'm going to treat it that way.

recent MATD have shown oscillating price in the morning, but generally, sometime in the early afternoon, for days following UP trend day, there has been a successful retest (HL) of intraday low, it can generate an afternoon trend in the same direction as the preceeding trend day. I cannot quantify these results; they are the product of eye-balling charts and certainly the looming weekend introduces variables, but PA rules
I don't consider that a trend day Paul...we chopped around until the last hour....


This is not a good sign to be opening below 74 - 75...usually very bearish...we haven't opened yet....but opening below 74 is below the late day buying spike...see Dalton...but more important look at charts over time!
1068.25 -- VAL
1073.75 -- POC
1076.75 -- VAH

Are these numbers correct for todays session?

I tried using the MP calculator just want to double check.


Also does anyone know how to calculate the VAH/POC/VAL for the $TICK??
shorting open
OK, Bruce, I had my questions about whether yesterday should be considered a trend day, I think I am going to start defining trend days based on 30min bars, trend day a day when no more than 2 30min bars undercut previous low of 30 min bar.

I get the gapguys free videos, once last year he posted stats about days following large unfilled gaps (that was the case yesterday regardless of trend) According to my notes, He claimed that a gap down after a large ufilled gap day*** has filled historically 84% of the time (before end of day).

*** according to my notes he defined a large unfilled gap as unfilled larger than .2 times 5 day ATR of RTH

if these stats confuse people I do not have to post them.
anybody shorting this racket?
Gap filled,
I might be done for the day...
Originally posted by PAUL9

OK, Bruce, I had my questions about whether yesterday should be considered a trend day, I think I am going to start defining trend days based on 30min bars, trend day a day when no more than 2 30min bars undercut previous low of 30 min bar.

I get the gapguys free videos, once last year he posted stats about days following large unfilled gaps (that was the case yesterday regardless of trend) According to my notes, He claimed that a gap down after a large ufilled gap day*** has filled historically 84% of the time (before end of day).

*** according to my notes he defined a large unfilled gap as unfilled larger than .2 times 5 day ATR of RTH

if these stats confuse people I do not have to post them.


gap fill was the stronger force today
+8pts from the open (1072.5), which is looking more and more like a higher low
s 83...after high run out and high $ticks...air below
Has there been a study, or is there a link for more info about the rat


I know this is here on mypivots :
Rats are fixed prices around which the Emini S&P500 (ES) is said to pivot based on the last 2 whole numbers of the price. The last 2 whole numbers of the ES at their extremes are 00 and 100. Using these as starting points we split them 4 times to get all of our rat levels at 6.25 points apart.

This says they are said to pivot .. this is why I ask if there is more info. about them

TIA