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ES on 8-13-08

ES gapped down about 6pts, looking for longs in the 1279 area....ES is getting oversold on a 30 min basis. Below 1279 is some good shorting till the 70's. Markets gapped below a 2x1 line from the low on 8/05, and well below 45 from this last top.
buying 1278.50
cover at 1282 ...tho it should go to 1284
Daily pivot there at 1281.75-82
We have had a range extension on every TPO on the MP today. Usally best to place exits a bit below major S/R areas just my two cents. good entry though.
stop at 1279.75.
point noted joe. stopped at 1279.75. trying to play a cycle low due the 15th.
Sellers are on a decided path to ES 62 it appears, which would be a measured move from the 29th of last month; inline with the standard deviation from troughs to peaks and the average of 66.57% retracements. I lost some good coin on awaking this morning, but that's the risk took enroute to make it. Now we know that we're in a bear at least temporarily and that we're off to test the entire run's trendline. A bounce at 62 would be the retrace of this move down and could very well terminate the run. The hold at the previous low was made after the open. Smart money thought it was overbought.

I wish I had gone with my first setup. Oh well. I'm done trading for the day.

Checkout this thread on short term cycles in the ES
I faded the bounce at GTC 85.00. The breakout level is at 76.75 - the distance from where the move began, 93, added to the breakout level, projects a measured move to 1260.51. Interestingly, the present standard deviation is at 4.0123725%, indicating the swing will be oversold from 1313.50 at 1260.79.

I'm remiss deciding to trade, but it's too good to pass up recovering my money and making some back. It may move against me a touch but it is a bull ABC correction in a bear short term trend and it wont be by much if anything.

All hail Capitalism and greed. Hear here.
short at 1288.00. 5 min chart projected move off of 1274.50 to hit resistance here. trying for a small sclp
I too get mauled from time to time, when I deviate from my daily plan. Then I just reduce the trading size and get on with it till I make it back.

You too will make it back - stay cool!