ES discussion for Wednesday 7/29/09

4PT cont. forming after DT abcd, and test back with small abcd to TD 0.786 area of big pattern, coiling

So, a ride unitl close off that LOD retest and third test of the TD line? Notice the TL here and price flow it has just peeked over? Watch for clues here, pop and drop suck in and headfake, or true character change here?

Thanks for the post, BBJ. It posted when I was writing my note above. You can see that price flow and peek above looking at your chart from late yesterday's price action, to the points you have marked A and C, to the swing high near the end of the price action, and then the peek above that flow. I think the odds are like 99% it will burst up and over decisively, but we'll see. It's a great spot to suck them in and kill them, too. As an aside, this is one of those patterns with a flat bottom and lower highs, which usually breaks down, but it isn't trending down into it, so it's a lot less likely to play out, in my experience.

Well, that didn't take long!

Oh, they don't like that note auction. I did get a trigger short off the last area, but didn't remember the note auction, so I 'got lucky' a bit here.

Hi Jim, what was your entry trigger ?

Look at them 'artificially' defend that LOD.

quote:

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Originally posted by BBJ

Hi Jim, what was your entry trigger ?

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71, on the tick swing trigger. It was also a trigger on the 1 and 3-min. I actually had another 3-min trigger at 71.25, but I wanted a bit more confirmation that the rush up pop to take out that line and flow area was going to be a fakeout.

I see, thanks.
What timeframe on the tick chart ?
If you put the stop 3 ticks above the high at 73.25, you're risking 2.25 pts (if you enter at 71).
Do you actually enter at 71 since you have no confirmation that the swing low at 71 is broken ?

If you're taking this trade with that risk than I suppose you have a minimum target of the LOD ?

So, why was I looking short in that last area after the flow break fake? Recall the set I mentioned in yesterday's ex post facto, the one I said if you don't have this I wonder what you've learned from me? Look at where the first LOD was, right at the lower division line. The HOD overshot the upper division line a bit, then the new LOD right on the lower division line again, and then, lo and behold, where was my last setup? Right back to that upper divison line. Line ping pong. If you don't have that set, you are missing some amazing things. I think everyone should already know what set I mean here, but if not, the above clues and some hard work experimenting should get it for you. If I just tell you everything, you won't learn. This set is amazing, and was on my charts yesterday morning, and has guided all my setups since then. And around 962 is the lower //. But first we are right back at the lower division line again right now...

So, they did the 10 point ramp, as expected, and this play is still running. Not bad, eh?