JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Key line, DB ABCD, POC, DP all in this 72.75-74 area. Can anything stop this rocketship?
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BBJ
Rep: 100
Posts: 129
13 min lower // of green, standard set, classic action
Click image for original size
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Right to 93.75 and checks back. But, the day is almost over, so what it truly thinks of this area will have to wait. Sometimes I like setups like this, I can take them, have some cushion, and ride them into GLOBEX. Given the strength and price action of this ramp and LOD defense, this is not one of the times I'd feel real comfortable with that. I'm just waiting here for them to come right back in at this same key spot they use over and over in situations like this.
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BBJ
Rep: 100
Posts: 129
quote:
Originally posted by jimkane
Actually, when I look at the tick size, it is very close. That's the key set for now, IMO. So, use this for mid-range 'context', look at the TL wedge on the previous chart, and the rabid desire for them to defend that LOD (seems odd, huh?).
I just checked and I was charting 9u30-16u15, IQfeed data.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
So, my read not to trust the bear side or that setup, and stay long side, turned out to be the right read. Look at that after cash close. So, it's a hold some long side into GLOBEX and see. Wild action, eh?
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BBJ
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Posts: 129
Yes, Jim. Thanks for explaining how you read the price action and setting an example. This is really motivating. I rarely participate in the forum, but I do know the value of your material and knowledge.
And I guess you barely scratch the surface in here... respect!
And I guess you barely scratch the surface in here... respect!
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Thanks, BBJ. It's hard because I'm trying to pay attention to what I am doing, as well as post in a timely manner things that I think are key. I try to post the areas I am watching, and how significant I think they are, and the things I am taking into consideration for reading the price action. The things I likely will use to decide what I may want to do when various areas are hit. The 'context' and price reading, and hence ultimate decision making, is the really tough part to learn. If one can't get the areas up that I have, and see what I see, it just sounds like a lot of areas, and a lot of 'maybe I'll go long, maybe I'll go short, and maybe I'll stand aside', and it's hard to do what I am trying to do in here and be clear enough. A lot of it is my read on what I think they plan to do as an area is approached, and that's just experience.
I also don't want to just spell everything out exactly, or people will just follow along, and some may do what I find completely unacceptable, and that is take a trade off anything I say. My goal is education, and getting people to think on their own. So I have to guide, and hint at things to look at, but never spell it right out. This isn't an advisory service. And try it some time, that's a fine line. Sometimes I use sarcasm to make a point, sometimes I'm serious. If you follow me for awhile, it should be easy to understand my point. I do feel bad for all of you who are from overseas, because the subtlety of my remarks may be hard to grasp in a second language.
Finally, let me make one last point that I discuss in depth with my one-on-one students. Many times I point out areas that I find significant because they will likely provide some clues. These are not areas I want to trade, but I use them to see how likely my current premise is to continue to unfold as I have it laid out. The main issue with choosing the areas to trade, and this comes down to 'context' and my read, is not that I will get stopped out, it's that it may get me off the current side, or have me missing a move setting up on the other side.
Here's an example. It moves to an area and starts up. I get long. It goes up to the next area. I can stay with this, if I feel the area won't hold, and if it doesn't, it may really blow it out. Or if I think the area is good enough, I get off the long side and get on the short side. My concern here isn't that if the area doesn't really play out that I will get stopped out, as it usually takes a reaction there to interest me, and those frequently, in my experience, move a bit more, and hence I have some cushion, it's that if I then have to scratch it, I am not on the long side, and this is no place to enter a long. So, I miss all the rest of the upside, which may be a lot. My issue, my critical decision, is about what I may miss, not whether the trade will play out or not.
From today, I got a long trigger at the LOD, off 14:59. It hit the key TL around 15:22. Now, although I didn't get a trigger there, the issue is that if I did and took it, that would take me off the long side, and look what happened. The same thing applies as the higher area I mentioned got hit, and that one did give a trigger (recall my comments on the area and my bias at the time). The price action in most cases easily tells me to get off that new trade, but then the long side is lost. Point is, focus on that and you'll see how I think when looking at all these areas as I try to evaluate which ones to take and which ones to let slide. Now, if I'm not already in, that is less of a factor, but the way this goes line to line lately, it can be a big factor.
I also don't want to just spell everything out exactly, or people will just follow along, and some may do what I find completely unacceptable, and that is take a trade off anything I say. My goal is education, and getting people to think on their own. So I have to guide, and hint at things to look at, but never spell it right out. This isn't an advisory service. And try it some time, that's a fine line. Sometimes I use sarcasm to make a point, sometimes I'm serious. If you follow me for awhile, it should be easy to understand my point. I do feel bad for all of you who are from overseas, because the subtlety of my remarks may be hard to grasp in a second language.
Finally, let me make one last point that I discuss in depth with my one-on-one students. Many times I point out areas that I find significant because they will likely provide some clues. These are not areas I want to trade, but I use them to see how likely my current premise is to continue to unfold as I have it laid out. The main issue with choosing the areas to trade, and this comes down to 'context' and my read, is not that I will get stopped out, it's that it may get me off the current side, or have me missing a move setting up on the other side.
Here's an example. It moves to an area and starts up. I get long. It goes up to the next area. I can stay with this, if I feel the area won't hold, and if it doesn't, it may really blow it out. Or if I think the area is good enough, I get off the long side and get on the short side. My concern here isn't that if the area doesn't really play out that I will get stopped out, as it usually takes a reaction there to interest me, and those frequently, in my experience, move a bit more, and hence I have some cushion, it's that if I then have to scratch it, I am not on the long side, and this is no place to enter a long. So, I miss all the rest of the upside, which may be a lot. My issue, my critical decision, is about what I may miss, not whether the trade will play out or not.
From today, I got a long trigger at the LOD, off 14:59. It hit the key TL around 15:22. Now, although I didn't get a trigger there, the issue is that if I did and took it, that would take me off the long side, and look what happened. The same thing applies as the higher area I mentioned got hit, and that one did give a trigger (recall my comments on the area and my bias at the time). The price action in most cases easily tells me to get off that new trade, but then the long side is lost. Point is, focus on that and you'll see how I think when looking at all these areas as I try to evaluate which ones to take and which ones to let slide. Now, if I'm not already in, that is less of a factor, but the way this goes line to line lately, it can be a big factor.