ES discussion for Wednesday 7/29/09

And it 'sees' it.

quote:

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Originally posted by BBJ

I see, thanks.
What timeframe on the tick chart ?
If you put the stop 3 ticks above the high at 73.25, you're risking 2.25 pts (if you enter at 71).
Do you actually enter at 71 since you have no confirmation that the swing low at 71 is broken ?

If you're taking this trade with that risk than I suppose you have a minimum target of the LOD ?

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I use 13 and 34-tick charts for my entries, in the entry 'context' of the 1 and 3-min charts, if that makes sense. The swing low was 71.25, so 71 even is the trigger. Yes, 2.25 points risk is common for me. The reality, though, is that I rarely have them go back to the stop area and I'm still in. I do a lot of scratches (I define a scratch as plus or minus 3 ticks, such that over time they about balance out, they aren't all -3 ticks and I call them scratches) because I read the price action and when I don't like how it acts after trigger I scratch it. But, at 3 to 1 reward/risk, I only need 6-7 points from entry to make it worthwhile even if I wasn't able to scratch a lot of them, and that we generally see.

Oops, I didn't see the last question there. I don't do targets, but I have areas I think are most probable for the move. Generally a very generic area is the 1.272 of the entire ABCD, but I also look at the key lines, and the intraday factors (GLOBEX, DP, IB, POC, VAH and VAL, and so on), and what I think it's doing, and come up with a few key areas. So, for this one, my two areas are really right here at a key 1.128 and that same division line, and that 62+ area at the 1.272 and the lower //. If I see something happening here and it feels like it may start to bounce, I may look to scale some as it reverses, then give some room on some for a move lower. If it made it to that 62 area and broke down, it would be set up for a climaxing flush, then I'd look to cover on the demoralization and volume spike. I'm also watching to see if I may want to try the long side again or not, based on how it acts.

Jim, I understand, makes sense. Thank you for sharing.

It looks like they want to run this, but watch the .382/.447 at that ML coming in here. Also, at the top of the hour is the 'tan' book, so that should get things moving.

All price action is within the 07/24 962.5 to 09/27 979.75 swing.
Think price will have to test 62.5 low area now and around 1.272 at 958.

Tan book. Initially they don't like it, but watch for the snap back that frequently happens. Notice the report comes out right at the .447/ML area.

And there's the snap back, as if on cue.

black set line lower // seems to be the target

Does this black adjusted set shows that the flow is changing, with yesterday's and todays action trading in lower slot of line set ?

So, they did the 10 point ramp, as expected, and this play is still running. Not bad, eh?