Originally posted by jarek

Another new high on Monday morning. I guess less and less shorts want to keep their positions over the weekend so once this sequence fails it might be a spectacular failure

After they made sure last week that almost no shorts are left, the market is definitely ready for such scenario

because i could not explain what was happening to my last student using jim's numbers, i explained it this way... the completion of a larger ABCD at .382 as measured by gap fib.

Nice charts, roofer. There was some amazing geometry at today's low.

jarek, we have rolled out as of last Thursday to the June contract on the ES. I am using the continuous contract for my charting, which accounts for that appx. five point shift (down) in contracts, making the C point right at a 1.272. Look at this on ES #F. If you view this on either contracts alone it wouldn't be a TD, just an ABCD.

Now it looks much better:





From now on I'll use continuous contract only.

Well, it's a tough call what happens to the geometry during the rollovers. And different data providers use different rules (their own) for how to do continuous contracts. But, that was what I was looking at. I have different lines (I can show these to any of my students in one-on-one if they want), but your line is just as good.

Now I understand why you were all over that setup, especially with this climax selling right into the PTA. There was also an ML of a natural set there and the rise has just reached its upper ML:

Nice work, jarek. So, I would expect a pullback in here. If not, it's really strong. A nice pullback so all those top callers can get short again and get trapped (again) would be nice. We'll see. Whatever it does is fine, as the areas have been clear. Tomorrow is Fed day, so something is going to happen.

And yet another new 'bull' market high for the ES, all right off the area I mentioned. It didn't react hardly at all at that area jarek pointed out, indicating great strength. Most of the other strong indices are just smokin' off at new highs. This is an extremely bullish tape, in my opinion. Yes, we are approaching another area of 'resistance', but this may also melt up and just explode, too, so I am watching for that as a possibility also.

But recall my theory on Fed reactions. If this closes strong today, that reaction is usually 'wrong', and I'd be watching for a drop soon. Not a change in trend, just a reversal of that momentum for a short while. Those W2'ers and top callers are getting murdered. I was reading a blog yesterday, and he was still persisting. Every failed call is followed with another failed call. I don't get it, but who cares, I just go with the flow, as discussed in here.

Keep in mind, as they roll this over off that 'resistance', if this sells off today, then that would be the reaction I look at for the Fed theory. It's however it ends the day, up or down, from when the Fed announced. If it ends flat from there then I have no data for the theory.

What resistance, Jim? Did everyone see the DBS on the SPY to the penny, at a spike line?

Originally posted by jimkane

...Did everyone see the DBS on the SPY to the penny, at a spike line?

Wow - Jim is talking Roofer's language :-)

Hey T,

Great post. I agree with all of it. It's too bad both you and I have developed so much stuff and we wind up keeping it to ourselves. I am in your camp in that I think revealing it will dilute it to the point of uselessness. It only makes sense to me that if you have an edge and you tell the computer drones how you exploit that edge they will work it to death and it will disappear. But roofer has blasted his stuff out there in great detail and it seems to have no effect on it whatsoever, so maybe his take (and Scott's, as I understand it) is correct and it doesn't matter. Or maybe it matters for some things and not others. I just know the risk to me and my well being seems great revealing things that took me thousands of hours to discover.

I can't explain the lack of participation, or lack of interest, except to say it is the same on every forum I see everywhere. There are always one or two or three posters, and everyone else does nothing or asks super-low-level basic questions and that's it. There just aren't too many people willing to do the work, the tens of thousands of hours it takes. I'd say this is America, the home of the fat and lazy MTV generation, but it's a worldwide audience, and it doesn't seem to matter. All I know is I've tried and tried, and I can't get the interest. I mean, I mentioned perhaps getting together for a week in real time for free, if a certain set of conditions could be met (the key one being a certain level of participation), and it wasn't even close. If you can't even give it away, what does that say?

As far as the other topic, yes, T, those are great issues, ones I talk at great length with my students about. Once the techniques are mastered, those areas become the most important to work on. But, alas, it's not been anything in here that anyone wanted to spend time on. I've done what I can as far as articles and commentary on the website, but I'm not going to spend time I don't have starting endless topics in here that get three reads, it's just nuts. That's why I have said many times I'm just going to fold the forum. But then two or three people tell me it helps them a lot and they implore me not to, and I don't. But, it's such a small handful. And it seems to me we are really doing some amazing work in here. Oh, well, as T says 'I'm just saying...'