Originally posted by jarek

Another new high on Monday morning. I guess less and less shorts want to keep their positions over the weekend so once this sequence fails it might be a spectacular failure

After they made sure last week that almost no shorts are left, the market is definitely ready for such scenario

'' they who are to be judges must also be performers'' aristotle.

example from monday open.. FAS opens at two .886 on gap at line...but 4 bars later, QLD and IWM give classic sell.if you are only watching FAS,you do not see the powerful geometry set up against you...

Is this trend so strong that for the first time in a while the Fed first move rule will not be satisfied?

Today's HOD lies exactly on the spike line which is also a parallel line to my last set:

I'd have to show this to you, but the next key area, several lines and Fibs and such, hits at about 66 plus or minus the usual tolerance, so I'll be factoring that into management.

Keep in mind, though, as a trend trader, when one has a tiger by the tail, one doesn't want to jump out at the smallest of stumbles. Let the winners run is the idea.

Originally posted by jarek

Is this trend so strong that for the first time in a while the Fed first move rule will not be satisfied?

That may be the case. Or maybe we have to adapt and modify it. The move that started off the announcement is still going. Perhaps it doesn't have to necessarily end at the end of the first day. The rule basically says the first move, as determined by how it closes on meeting day, is usually the 'wrong' one, and reverses, usually for several days in the opposite direction. Maybe this area here had to be reached before it could reverse.

So, what is my strategy here, based on what I said about trend trading? If I'm long ES as an intraday play, I would be looking at rapid scaling as this comes off such a key area. Now we hit into a potential ABCD here, so that will be a great place for clues. I can also have been moving into the short side if I think this may drop more, a la the Fed rule. For longs composed of calls let's say, for a bigger move, then I decide on my areas for scaling, and my maximum area to ride through, giving the uptrend a chance to reassert itself. Those areas will be lower than what I would be watching for an intraday play, because the timeframes are different.

Important short-term area here to watch. Big clue time to see if the sellers are serious at all.

Notice how it stopped it dead? May or may not hold, but it sure 'saw' it, eh?

Finally got my break down. Now we see if that climaxes it, or if the modified Fed rule is going to hold.

Hey T,

Great post. I agree with all of it. It's too bad both you and I have developed so much stuff and we wind up keeping it to ourselves. I am in your camp in that I think revealing it will dilute it to the point of uselessness. It only makes sense to me that if you have an edge and you tell the computer drones how you exploit that edge they will work it to death and it will disappear. But roofer has blasted his stuff out there in great detail and it seems to have no effect on it whatsoever, so maybe his take (and Scott's, as I understand it) is correct and it doesn't matter. Or maybe it matters for some things and not others. I just know the risk to me and my well being seems great revealing things that took me thousands of hours to discover.

I can't explain the lack of participation, or lack of interest, except to say it is the same on every forum I see everywhere. There are always one or two or three posters, and everyone else does nothing or asks super-low-level basic questions and that's it. There just aren't too many people willing to do the work, the tens of thousands of hours it takes. I'd say this is America, the home of the fat and lazy MTV generation, but it's a worldwide audience, and it doesn't seem to matter. All I know is I've tried and tried, and I can't get the interest. I mean, I mentioned perhaps getting together for a week in real time for free, if a certain set of conditions could be met (the key one being a certain level of participation), and it wasn't even close. If you can't even give it away, what does that say?

As far as the other topic, yes, T, those are great issues, ones I talk at great length with my students about. Once the techniques are mastered, those areas become the most important to work on. But, alas, it's not been anything in here that anyone wanted to spend time on. I've done what I can as far as articles and commentary on the website, but I'm not going to spend time I don't have starting endless topics in here that get three reads, it's just nuts. That's why I have said many times I'm just going to fold the forum. But then two or three people tell me it helps them a lot and they implore me not to, and I don't. But, it's such a small handful. And it seems to me we are really doing some amazing work in here. Oh, well, as T says 'I'm just saying...'