WOW - what a busy Saturday in the forum! Haven't seen anything like this in quite a while ... Better times for the forum coming? :-)

Wow .. this is some nice selloff. No zone is holding. Very good stuff here in the forum today.

Line to line so far in this adjusted set so cofluent with the Schiff set that the latter one is not visible on the chart:

Originally posted by jimkane

Myself, given I have been at this a long time, and keeping in mind I am talking ES for very short term, am short side bias off that high, but very, very cautious and ready to switch teams if need be.

So, that wound up lasting all session, with many nice continuation ABCD's, as jarek so nicely posted for us. There was one sharp unstructured bounce (actually it was a '1.618' EXP), right to an area, and the downtrend continued. That took it right to a 1.000 ABCD to the tick at the low there. Will that pattern start a bounce? That answer will depend I think, to some extent, on if we had that sea change or not. Only time will tell, I don't have the answer to that. All I can do is play probabilities as I see them.

Jim what was the reason for you to look for short today even though context seems to be up ?

Originally posted by tomo

Jim what was the reason for you to look for short today even though context seems to be up ?

Keeping in mind I would not short the market at today's high for a swing or position play, only as a bias for an ES intraday trade, my main reasons (some of them, there were more) were as follows: dual 1.618 external retracements, which made this way overextended, spike line, set line upper parallels, intraday IB, and so on. So, I can look for a setup, and it gave the nice one jarek showed. It also did a 5-wave sequence up from the early AM low to help pinpoint the high, as well as some other Fib techniques I use on wave sequences that also supported that level as the potential HOD. It was just a countertrend back to support play.

I'm going to toss a thought out there. I think the odds greatly favor that we go right back up to new highs off support. We sit on support right here, and have several strong levels just below. That would be the status quo. But as I mentioned in my one post about watching for the possible sea change, this price action also has some hints in it of a change. Likely it will be a 'one hit wonder', something dirt common in this MRRD algo age we live in. Right back up tomorrow like it never happened.

But, and this is just a little feel I have, this is acting like it is about to drop 200 Dow points in a flash, like maybe 20 S&P points. This makes little technical sense in that it would most likely bounce up off support to some 'Wave 2' spot, and then roll down. And maybe it does. But it is giving me this feeling we may see 20 handles down in the ES just about right from here. I make no predictions, I'm not betting on it, and I fully expect to have this just play out normal area to area action from here.

In case this does happen, though, it would be so odd and so unexpected, I wanted to put it on record that I am getting 'vibes' about this. What I mean by that is that with my vast experience I can sometime 'read' clues that I can't put my finger on, that I can't say it's this or that, it's just a net accumulation of factors all distilled in my subconscious, perhaps.

So, I'm just tossing this out here, in the unlikely event that some news comes out, or something hits, and it drops. Given this, for me personally, I would be inclined to want to hold some earlier shorts to see what happens. BTW, the 'vibes' on this started shortly after the top, not near the low. The 'read' just kept getting stronger as it kept selling, and even after now, in GLOBEX, even though the action is slow. Normally I think I'm quite good at reading a climax move, and this one just hasn't made me think that.

Thanks for sharing Jim!

Sure. It probably won't amount to anything, but I recall one time when I had a similar observation and didn't mention it and it played out, and I wished I had put it out there.

i thought traders would like to see some of the other charts i was looking at....i could not find the geometry in FAS after the morning strength....i always watch GS.... and there it was......

Nice charts, roofer.

Roofer, what u are alluding to with the multiple timeframes comments is that they are deliberately omitting the 'CONTEXT'?.They are just blind to the bigger picture within wich the current price action,indicators,geometry are set up?. That's a big time mistake to deny 'Context'. And Jim will tell you: quote:'without context you have nothing'...it is so true I believe.
As far as computers go with their millions of calc per nanosecond, they still can't beat a well trained human mind with anticipatory instincts,rock solid discipline and a real 'trading plan'. But these types don't come by often and the brain can only function at peak performance for just a finite period of time,unlike comps that can run forever.So I'd assume that's why only a small percentage of the trading population can consistently beat the comps at their own games. And I think those who run the comps are fine with this fact because in the long run they still take the money of the weaker minded masses anyway. So that cycle is perpetuating, making the market wheels go round and rewarding only those who work hard at their trading craft by whatever means and methods necessary.Indicators or not, whatever works is what matters.
Being consistently profitable is no easy task but feasible I think, or else I wouldn't be trading at all. How can one achieve that goal? it's like climbing Mont Everest, many try but only few make it and along the way up you just learn about your true self and deep down inside the only fight u have is with yourself not the mountain...

regards,
T