I spent more than a year studying the books, making the notes and creating my trading plan. I'm still a beginner and have much to learn but I decided to post some of my setups. I hope it will help me to increase my level of experience. Feel free to comment those setups - I'll appreciate any useful advice.

Setup #001: EUR/USD, 2D, Standard ABCD

I entered the trade on the bar pointed by the arrow. Right now I'm taking some heat right now but my stop loss put above the 2nd grouping hasn't been hit yet. I decided to stay and see how this trade will turn out.

Hi Marcin,
I see some other issue worth mentionning with your GBP/USD setup here.
I would add in your "what i don't like about this setup" section, this:
-the ABCD pattern size and proportion look right but the location is not in proper context because the ABCD overlaps the previous equally-sized correction from wich you based your ML adjusted set.

Now, my reasoning behind this is that if I expect the setup to be in an impulse trend then there should NOT be overlaps of similarly sized corrections in a normal trend,generally speaking. So my expectation for this setup on the traded time frame would be just a reaction leg but nothing longer term and so I would adjust my trade management plan to catch that reaction. I'm not saying it won't run but the management plan has to match your expectations for that given setup. The trick is to maximize your realistic expectations with a plan.
Not a deal breaker here for your setup but I hope it was helpful in showing how to look for clues and how you can adapt your trading according to the clues you may find.

T

Hi Tony,

yes, you're right - I didn't take that correction into consideration. If I noticed that I probably wouldn't enter that trade in the way I did because of the low reward/risk ratio. There was a short bounce, I secured some profit but that's it. What I can learn from this experience is looking more carefully at the bigger patterns that do not favor my chosen trade direction.

Thanks a lot for your comment. It was very helpful.

you're welcome Marcin.
I'm glad my post was helpful.
T

There's a potential Expanding ABCD that I'm watching on USD/CHF (Daily).



What I like about this setup:

* PTA between - 0.236-0.300
* The issue behaves quite harmonic - tight groupings with many numbers
* B point is supported by numbers from previous swing points
* Trade is set up to bounce off of the 100-day SMA
* AB and CD legs look impulsive
* ML from pattern ML set hits the area
* The trend doesn't look outsized

What I don't like about this setup:

* 50-day SMA has been violated
* The trade is near obvious support on the context TF
* There have been no similar corrections in the trend I'm trying to get on
* I had some problems with general ML set and it doesn't represent the price action well

I will see what happens in the entry TF. I will try to find the appropriate trigger. Because there are many things that I don't like about this setup I'd like to get a little bit more confirmation. From the other side - the trade might be only a slight reaction so I don't want to enter the trade too late to increase the risk.

The worst case scenario I'm considering at this moment is a short correction (about 0.382 of entire pattern). The potential risk is about 50 pips, the potential profit - 200, which leaves me with R/R ~ 4.

The entry TF - 480 M, entry trigger - 5-SMA (I decided not to wait too long for the entry trigger because it could worsen my RR ratio).

My entry TF chart:



Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere here. Sharing these setups is still a learning experience and motivates to spend the time in front of those charts ;)

usd/chf
I don't see any EXP abcd on the daily chart. But i do see one on the 480min chart...???
The regular ABCD on the daily is quite obvious ,its C point was formed on the .786/.886 ret of AB leg wich is kind of deep and should've have you anticipate and construct a 4PC pattern completion area(pt#4).Then looking at the 480min TF you would've see that the 4PC area had been blown and the price action hovered at the B point level,forming that EXP abcd by the way. That's price action clues that says to me to look for more upward movement towards regular ABCD completion areas and then see how it acts when it get there. But the main idea here is that the price action clues here do not favor a significant downside turn or at the least do not really support your odds for the setup to work out on the short side, therefore reducing your theorical reward profile.
And by the way,Marcin, may I suggest that you not get too caught up too much in risk/reward calculations. The setups either work or they don't, either you're in or you're not...and you just take whatever the market gives you. That's my approach . It's good to know your risks though but having a set reward number is kind of limiting your potential.And the unwanted side effect is that it might cloud your judgement and make you act on distorted informations etc...
Sorry I am not a good writer and my choice of words might not convey my thoughts well enough.Maybe Jim can comment on the subject?

T

Tony, thank you for your post. I made a huge mistake here - combined two different patterns into one. I took C point placement from 4P Continuation Pattern and D point placement from an Expanding Pattern.

Here's the chart for the Standard ABCD on the daily TF:



Probably I will pass on this trade because:

* For me it looks like the general ML set doesn't represent the price action well
* I don't see a great degree of synergy between main ML set and pattern ML sets
* Maybe I'm trying to force something here to find a trade...

Also thank you for your comments about the R/R calculations. I will take it as a good advice.

Hi Marcin,

I have been also observing this setup for a couple of days and I will obviously do. It looks as if the issue has started testing 1.0027 from above now but anyway the setup is not solid to get into (IMHO). Anyway, let's see...

GBP/USD, 120M (traded TF). I'm waiting for the D point to complete a potential standard ABCD. There are tight groupings with many numbers around 1.000 and 1.128 AB/CD area that confluence with adjusted ML set, its displacement line and the lines from pattern ML sets (standard and Modified Schiff).

I decided to enter the market with 5-MA because of the shallow pullback of the entire trend (0.236). However I entered quite late because the price reached my PTA at night and bounced off the grouping in 0.886AB=CD area. I divided my position size into two parts because I want to be secured in case the price rolls over and bounces off of the AB=CD grouping.

Hey guys,

Just been really busy with life :)
Not much time for trading at all. Haven't been following the markets much.Seems like the only way is up, heh heh.
I hope/believe you guys are as successful as can be in what you do and most importantly that it's still fun :)