This one-way market is already becoming boring. I'm more and more inclined to the following long term view:



The only question mark in such scenario would be whether it was already end of .382 W2 at July lows or if it still needs some more downside to conclude (and form a Flat or TD ABCD).
I agree with Jim that longer term all the permabears are going to be rather unpleasantly surprised.

Here is my longer term scenario work I presented here 3 months ago:





It obviously failed to materialize, but it is interesting to note that this important upper ML was reached one more time on Friday. The journey to the lower ML is still possible under the following scenario:



Note that such a flat would be pretty similar to the long term one on the first chart above: point C slightly higher that point A and point D slightly lower than point B. Think about all those people misled at major turns...

But would they allow for such a drop ??

Although I'm extraordinarily bullish due to 100 bazillion quarillion Bern-Qwacke Zimbabwe dollars being funneled directly into stocks, I plan to jump off the train well before it goes over the cliff. Sentiment is extreme, and I mean extreme. Every measure I have seen is at or above, some well above, the 2007 top levels. Although those extremes could get even higher, this strongly indicates a decline is way overdue. Here is yet another long list of extreme sentiment:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charting-ridiculously-extreme-market-which-dumb-money-most-confident-it-has-been-5-years

Caveat Emptor - Let the buyer beware.

jarek-i was gone from the forum towards the end of the week because the energy it took to concentrate to hit the trades based on .886 on gap was exhausting....i was still able to find on 4 of five days...

roofer, glad to see you back.

Sunday night and the futures are down? That can't be...

work/ friday highs suggest price may need to rest ....

The recent upsloping set is still respected, however caution on the long side is required here after this double 1.618 being hit earlier today:

Amazing. Calls for Europe to rise 30% next year, the dollar gets crushed the most I've ever seen in such a short time on Moody's talk of a downgrade of the U.S. AAA rating and Sarkozy saying we need to have a debate about the USD's reserve status, another new 'bulls#$&' market high, another day on TV showing the lowest S&P forecasts for next year of all participants surveyed was 1350, China doesn't increase rates as was 100% expected and their market is up well over 3% on the day, another big up day for grains and softs, copper explodes to new highs for the entire move, just one day from the all-time record, silver flirting with that high over $30 again, and the Euro, well, now that's some move (along with the Swissie, wow).

The Euro, too, as Zero Hedge discusses that the Euro-zone is in its last death throes as it gets ready to go under, with upcoming meetings to discuss changing the treaty so that they still have a chance to exist going forward. But Europe will be up 30%, and the Euro is getting strong, as France calls for the end of the USD as a reserve currency, probably in favor of the Euro, which may be gone before the plan could even be implemented... And stocks? Another new high. Best time ever to buy stocks, right? Will Bern-qwacke hint at buying muni's in tomorrow's meeting announcement???

Is the entire world insane???????????????????????????????????

And just as Jim asks that question, the ES takes out the HOD, and sets yet another new 'bulls#$&' market high. And yes, I'm long side bias, have been since that sweet setup last night at 20:36 AM.

Could this be a famous 2-tick new high and roll over??? Nah...

Probably just some OpEx thing.