Okay, I guess jarek must still be skiing, so I'll start this week's topic. Let's make it another monster week for quality posts.

SLW 15 minute.

See the bearish DB ABCD there, set up as a 'W2'? I won't go in to how I yell all the time about people trying to short new all-time highs using potential 'W2's', so don't take my pointing this out as encouragement for fighting a trend. But, if it were to roll over, that's a great spot to watch. If there was another reason why one might think the trend move was going to come back in.

SLW is really reacting dead off that ABCD. The lowest it can go and still have the immediate upmove still be intact, I think, is around 44.55ish. I mean, it can do anything, but that's the key area to keep my current technical scenario intact. If not, it may need a bigger ABCD, down in that mid-44 area. Probably that's what it wants...

ES staying strong, not acting done, not selling at all. They came right back in for it. Let's see what it does on the 'retest', or perhaps 'full test' of the area. Like I said, long side bias for me until proven otherwise.

Hmmm. Hmmm, hmmm, hmmm. ES not setting a new high, checking back on the 'retest'. As I posted, that may be it for now. They like to close 'em right in the key area. That frequently means close cash, then do something with the area (react off it or blow it out) in the immediate after-cash. We'll see.

Every time this weakens a bit, they burst it back up. Very curious. This is a very key area, for sure, in my opinion.

Note that although the Midcaps hit another all-time new high today, they also hit a key SL for the second time, moving just above the 1.272 off that nice-looking ABCD that launched it. This, as the bulls and bears sentiment hits ridiculous extremes. There just aren't any bears left. And Portugal basically 'goes under', Trichet spins it as a positive, the day before the ECB hikes rates, and the market doesn't even react at all. The ECB is going to hike rates into a collapse of Portugal! Despite the total insanity of that, the market could care less. So, is this an extreme here, or no?

ES closed cash at the key area, again. My read that the ES was done there was right. And they did make it look all strong multiple times in the area, to try to fool people just like me that saw it was done there. Now it is 'after-cash', and like I said, they are starting to take it down off the area. Wow, what a surprise. I wonder how those people that bought into the quick pops there at the area designed to make it look strong are feeling now???

Spy 5 minute.
Tomorrow should tell me which sets can be deleted. :-)

Interesting, SLW hit 44.55 to the penny, and jumped up to 44.82. Now we see. I suspect there is a good chance it may head lower, but it does what it does. I have my areas, and it just plays out as it does. My focus here is a longer-term swing play, and it already hit the first part of the area I was watching for, so now it is a matter of what areas would one be willing to ride out on a partial position, as far as application of the methodology.

ES bleeding like a stuck pig, from a proportional standpoint given the narrow range today (in other words it looks bad on the chart, but it's barely a few points...). Close cash right at the key area, then kill it off the area in the after-cash. How typical. Very, very cool. It sure 'saw' that area.

Okay, that's it for me today. I really went wild on the posts, I hope it was useful. I tried to mix up the issues so there was something for everyone, from intraday tick ES to swing plays. I won't likely be posting this much tomorrow, I just felt like it today. Can't explain it...

Thanks - I must have been sleeping indeed