ES Friday 7-15-11

Good day everyone!

1312 1307 and 1301 are my S/R numbers for today.

Let's all do well! Please reply with comments, levels, and ideas!

It is now 1152 EST. With the last 30 minutes price action in the 1309 and change area what do people think?

My gut feel is that we still will test the lows again. Then again, I really didn't think we would get to 1309 after hitting 1303 earlier this AM, or meander here for so long either.

Zien

my study of Monday's range expansions was based on RTH only charts, so I cannot view the overnight move as satisfaction.

However, you have raised a very good point, perhaps, for those 2 in 10 that don't make it to the full extension (after printing .618 extension in RTH), perhaps they were hit in the overnight.

I'm just too busy with other projects right now to check it out, but your observation certainly makes it worth a second look.

Europe bank stress tests coming, could affect moves... 12 noon eastern

Originally posted by redsixspeed

Zien;

Do the 618 #s act as a magnets

TIA

I'm not really qualified to answer that question. I just learned about it from Paul's post today.

It appears it's better to think of them as short term S/R rather than magnets. Look at what the market did the first time it hit that .618 (1302.0)on Tuesday at 3:15 am... it bounced off. Then again yesterday when it hit 1302 for the first time during RTH it acted as support once more.

It could just be a coincidence though? This is only one week of observation so it's too early to say but it's something to look into further.

sorry I'am not in ES room much .. in 6e 99% of the time .. saw your post as I was passing thru .. there is a link something like "the magic 618"
but I can't find it for some reason .. I had it one time ...

beyondMP,

Yes, this is exactly why I was interested. If I remember correctly, a similar post was made on the questions thread. It gave me the feeling of... Don't cloud the head (any further) and just stick to the numbers in front of me!

If I come across something though, I will pass it on in that thread for those interested.

Thanks beyondMP for you reply!

Originally posted by beyondMP

Fair Value is a hypothetical fundamental analysis calculation. It is used, most commonly, by institutional investors to justify the values of their portfolios.

As in most cases, hypothetical calculations have little to no value in the real world. And, even much less in the world of intraday trading.

expiration Friday trading:

Originally posted by beyondMP

Fair Value is a hypothetical fundamental analysis calculation. It is used, most commonly, by institutional investors to justify the values of their portfolios.

As in most cases, hypothetical calculations have little to no value in the real world. And, even much less in the world of intraday trading.

I thought there are arbitrage algos to trade the open based on fair value?

http://ori.cnbc.com/id/17689937

cnbc fair value link

Originally posted by redsixspeed

http://ori.cnbc.com/id/17689937

cnbc fair value link

That is what I use, thanks. It appears that the cash index reacts directional to whether the futures are above or below fair value at the open.

Has anyone observed some directional "tell" related to the futures contract(s)?