ES Monday 9-10-12

here's what I'm looking at today:
No video below? Try this link: monday.swf

1430 - 32.50 as first support point....1435.50 is the magnet price depending on which way we open today

some further babble
No video below? Try this link: momore.swf

The ES has had two consecutive days of unfilled UP gaps.

Gap Guy said after 2 days of unfilled gaps up, odds close to 86% that a gap down will fill or be profitable by the EOD, (He means if you bought a gap down today, by the EOD it is profitable 86% of the time)

a gap up fills or is profitable by EOD about 81%, (He means if open today is gap up, and you sell the open, 81% of the days, price will be below the open as of the close)

When there is a difference between 4:00C and the 4:15C, I look to whichever one is closer to current PA. for an initial reaction, but most days, after an initial reaction, price also takes out the target further away.

4:00C was 1437.00
4:15C was 1438.00

both of these levels are in the tails of the volume bells from the 24hour and if tested (filled) could be scalping reversal price points.

One thing that any sparsely populated price area represents (Bruce's LVN) is a possible reversal point (as he has said), but one of the things that the markets can do is go just past those areas in search of stops before reversing.
over the weekend, after I watched gapguy's video, I marked my daily ES charts for everytime there had been 2 consecutive unfilled UP gaps, most of the following days (today) were not big range.
I don't think the second 30 minute bar of the day will have more volume then this first one especially since no reports are due. With that said it seems that this 35.25 is going to be a magnet price still .

We can use the vpoc from the first hour ( use the highest vpoc of the first two 30 minute bars - whichever one has the biggest - this replaces the need to look at one minute volume spikes most days) to try and get a lead on which side the IB will/should break and a filter.
no trades yet for me..I'd like to see what happens outside one of the O/N ranges for my first fades...above the On high would be great up in the 38 - 39 area..till then I'm letting those who like to trade in the middle do their thing and will still assume that 35.25 will draw price back
one measure that was pretty useful today was the $TICK.
except for one stab down to -500 area near 9:42am, the retracement just after 10am printed lows of only -250 area (when that's a floor, there is usually a try for higher).

I'm real tempted to go find something else to do today.
agree Paul..Only one trade for me and that just ended..Will set alerts for when the IB breaks but till then it's best to go do something more interesting..the 35.25 was the first 30 minute bars vpoc....that is the test they need to do and the area that the IB HiGH breakout traders would need to see hold if they are to run out that high first


good luck if u play in here