Inaugural post for my new, closed 'discussion' thread. I will post my levels, my thoughts on various aspects of the KT methodology, and my usual snide comments about market action. This topic is for those that want insight into my viewpoint on the KT methodology.

Here's the last post from the open thread:

Posted-10/15/2012 : 16:25:38

So, Jim, what's so special about that 46-48 area, besides all the obvious technical factors that define the area? And while we're at it, does this apply to the low 50's area? Ah, see the 46-48 area is the area for a 'backtest' of the critical, broken 240-min price flow, and it would come in the form of a bearish EXP ABCD. I thought it would do it in a zigzag ABCD, but it went ahead and set a new low instead of bouncing off that potential C point where is started up before the roll. And the lower 50's area, that has a slew of technical factors pointing there, but it could be a 'throw over' of that 'backtest', and down it goes, trapping many. We shall see.

So, mostly I'm just kickin' it here, waiting on that 46 area, and seeing how it handles the current area. I'd like to see a checkback on the way to 46. That would help strengthen the trend, and increase the chances of it taking out that 46. Keep in mind, this is all coming off a big close to flat ABCD on the daily timeframe. If I thought they were in election mode I'd just expect new highs, and I'd follow my plan for that, having a lot of experience in how things tend to move, and where each wave may go to.

But in this case I am somewhat skeptical it will make new highs, so I am looking at alternative scenarios. This TD here is one of them, as is the EXP around 46, with the nice 'backtest'. Even the other ABCD around the .447 area is possible. I need to see how it develops, and what it does. Price action is key in this. We shall see. My gut says 'higher'. If I'm in management mode, I'm just looking to ride this tiger.

Recall how I said in the old thread that the .447 was at 38.63 and that that actually may be the high end of the area. I preferred it to roll sooner, but that would be the absolute upper boundary. The high so far is 38.00, and it is under some pressure. Next step is create the typical area for a checkback (or series of areas, depending on the various degrees of swing it may choose), and make decisions. Areas can be used for management, or for trading. They can also be used simply for information, additional clues to gain better understanding of what the market's intentions are. This is a vastly different approach than most take. It's the basis for how I use the tools.

Let me just throw out an idea I have mentioned many times before. I'm a thinker. I think too much. I think all day and night. Thinking keeps me up at night. I think about everything. So, when I tried to come up with a trading plan, I decided to use my nature, my natural tendencies, to come up with an approach that suited me. I came up with a plan that requires thinking essentially every tick of the market.

If I developed a plan that didn't require this of me, I would get into trouble thinking when I should be letting a trade run. Get in, set the stop and target, go have fun doing something else. I wouldn't stay away. I'd keep looking, and get into trouble. It's my nature. So, I took that and turned it into an asset, instead of a liability. I came up with a plan where thinking about every tick, watching and analyzing, even over-analyzing, would be a good thing.

Why do I want this? Because of all the things on earth to do with my time, nothing is more enjoyable to me, more exciting, more interesting, than watching every tick of price action, day after day after day. If I could do anything with my time, sitting behind my computer, watching price action and thinking and thinking and thinking about it is the number one choice for me of all things on earth. I don't want to go and do something else.

I don't want to set up a trade and then go do something else. The something I would want to do with my time is watch every tick of the price action, assess it, analyze it, ponder it, and come up with theories about it. Hence, the KT style and my approach. I know of one person I work with, and that is exactly how he describes it. If that isn't you, then adapt your trading style to fit you.

Personally, I love my trading style. It's mine. I made it, I created it, I adapted it for me. It's my baby, and I love it. I'm right where I want to be. Thinking, changing, pursuing, learning, adapting. I'm living my dream. Now, find your dream.

This is one of those questions I ask that may seem unfair in that few will understand this, but I know some will. Look at the last three checkbacks since the low, as this sits right now at this time. Notice anything? This is a 'pattern' not without significance. Not a 'pattern' like an ABCD pattern, but a pattern nonetheless.

What a battle so far at this area. Let's see what they do on the European open. It could dump, it sure is set up for it. I'd think a checkback would be more probable than a big dump, though. Then again, this weak look right before the open may a trap...

I know, I know, I just said it may go up, or down, or down a lot. Big help.

Just tryin' to stay awake, waiting for this to pop up and start its move to that 46 area. Or seeing if it may respect this area. I think the odds are like 75-25 for the former.

Until I start a new week next week fresh, I'll have to lift posts from the old topic. Here's one:

Posted-10/15/2012 : 16:08:14

So, let's say 44-46, and then low 50's. That low 50's is a profound area. I can't imagine they won't try for either, especially that lower 50's. But, if they get that high, then I think they are back in election run mode, and it will likely 'sail'. But, first it has to overcome this big bearish TD ABCD area here. That is a major accomplishment which it hasn't done yet.


And today it hits 50.75. 46-48 produced a tiny reaction in the form of an ABCD. It did what I suspected right after that shakeout drop on Sunday night 'failed'. Very, very shortly after that I was convinced we would be here soon. Let me post this, I'll fish up what I said, and post it in the next post.

Here's what I was saying Sunday night:

Posted-10/15/2012 : 03:17:14

Everything is now as it should be. After that little shakeout drop the ES is rising strongly, up almost 10 off the low. I have to see how it handles that area around 30 to see if they will be doing a 20-30 point straight up move or not.


Posted-10/15/2012 : 03:28:31

If this thing goes nuts, I'm looking at 1446 by the close tomorrow. If it's a more slow grind and they plan to run it, then the time will just get expanded a bit.


So, it's up 34.50 at the high today (and may have another small leg coming), and it did the 'slow grind' (if you could call that slow!), and hit it Tuesday instead of Monday. Look at that move on a 60-min all-sessions. I'd call that 'straight up'.

Point is, I only posted levels on the upside. It went to each one, and either reacted or stopped dead and churned. I didn't mention any levels on the downside. How many times have we seen this? I'm doing this in advance, not after the fact. Day in and day out. I'm just trying to guide the reader as to where to do work, to see if they are finding the same levels, or not. If not, your work isn't KT work yet. If so, great, this is validation that you are on the right track. All done in advance, so you can 'work' the simulation trade in real-time.

You'll know when you are ready to try real money in small size. That's a decision only you can make, based on your skill level, capitalization, and so on. The point in here is to learn and progress with the process of developing an individualized 'Trading Plan'. I show it within the guidelines of the KT methodology, but within that there is, as the books show, lots of room for individual variation and tweaking. And, the general forum shows other techniques that one can incorporate, as long as one truly understands what effects these changes will have on the workings of the plan. 'Nuff said.

31.25 draws a big reaction. It seems to 'check' each level and get very weak off it (the first level was the 1.128 ABCD). It heads hard to the LOD into the cash close. Amazing. Can't say I ain't thrilled. Ooooh, as I type, it hits the LOD to the tick. Anyway, all I ask for Christmas is for this area to give way hard.