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MA
MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
Euro is struggling with .447 of the bearish ABCD, but given the 200 days MA and lines slightly beneath the area, even it fails range trading may be expected similar to the one near the C point.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
This is interesting.
http://www.quora.com/Wall-Street/What-are-some-mind-blowing-facts-about-Wall-Street
http://www.quora.com/Wall-Street/What-are-some-mind-blowing-facts-about-Wall-Street
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I don't mean 'crash' hard, just hard for the 1-min chart as far as a rollover.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Nice pop there. Right back to the after-cash HOD, and two ticks from a new 'bulls#%&' market high. It does seem to me, though, after nine days in a row for new highs in the Dow, it doesn't benefit them to put it up right now. So, it may not grind up, they may just chop it around, bring it down a bit in the overnight, and then set another new all-time high tomorrow. Lather, rinse repeat. Where will it all end? Please read my next post.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
I've had my own theories for awhile on what's coming at us (like a freight train). One theory is that the Fed can not exit, ever. They are now fully monetizing (did you see the article about how they bought a 30-year issuance that doesn't come out until the day after they bought it?), and can never stop, or we collapse, go into default.
They can never sell what they have, no market will ever exist for it all, on top of what is being issued all the time. As one article pointed out, if they simply hold everything to maturity (some people's answer for how they exit) it is tantamount to selling, which, mathematically, I agree 1,000% with. Bottom line, I see no way the Fed can ever exit, or slow down. If fact, they must increase, despite all the talk.
My next theory is that hyperinflation is much, much more likely than deflation. The deflation argument is strong. Inflation would raise interest rates and collapse the goob-er-mint. So, deflation and deleveraging it is. But, I was thinking, what if they control interest rates for the goob-er-mint, and let them skyrocket for everyone else. Can they do this? Yes, if they monetize 100% of the debt. They aren't going to the market, so there can be no jacking up of the rates. They set the rates themselves.
Hence, they inflate the debt away, while paying zero interest on the debt, while market rates go astronomic. Too bad. The banks 'deleverage' by inflating their balance sheets 'nominally' (not in real terms), and all the bad debt essentially goes away. Who gets destroyed? Me. You. Anyone who 'did the right thing' and is debt free, saved their entire lives, and was responsible. How about all those knuckleheads that are in hock up to their eyeballs? Won't they benefit a lot?
Yes and no. Their houses will get paid off, perhaps with a few paychecks (unless the banksters add in a clause after the fact, something that likely would be part of some new provision in some BS law, that says you pay in real terms, not nominal, which I truly think they would do, in the old days this was called a 'gold clause'), as will their cars and plasma TV's. But, no matter how much the plan is for a currency reset, wages never keep up with inflations, even planned hyperinflations.
So, their buying power will drop. They will still get a lot from all their stuff being paid off in a few weeks or months, but then their standard of living will be much lower. Hence, the shock of that won't be as bad, since they will own their houses, cars, boats, etc. free and clear, no payments. Unless the banksters do an 'inflation adjustment' to the payments, which I am 99.99% sure they will do. After the fact. Remember, there is no rule of law, only the rule of banksters.
To close, my point is, I finally saw an article that basically sums up my theories, ones that have been somewhat unique even with all the blogs and such out there endlessly discussing this. This article is how I think this is going to play out. Are you ready for some real fun? Is this the fun part? (from Steve Martin). This is the calm before the storm, we are in the eye of the storm. My two cents is, enjoy this like there is no tomorrow, because when you get right down to it, there isn't (that's from 'Vision Quest').
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-13/qbamco-feds-exit
They can never sell what they have, no market will ever exist for it all, on top of what is being issued all the time. As one article pointed out, if they simply hold everything to maturity (some people's answer for how they exit) it is tantamount to selling, which, mathematically, I agree 1,000% with. Bottom line, I see no way the Fed can ever exit, or slow down. If fact, they must increase, despite all the talk.
My next theory is that hyperinflation is much, much more likely than deflation. The deflation argument is strong. Inflation would raise interest rates and collapse the goob-er-mint. So, deflation and deleveraging it is. But, I was thinking, what if they control interest rates for the goob-er-mint, and let them skyrocket for everyone else. Can they do this? Yes, if they monetize 100% of the debt. They aren't going to the market, so there can be no jacking up of the rates. They set the rates themselves.
Hence, they inflate the debt away, while paying zero interest on the debt, while market rates go astronomic. Too bad. The banks 'deleverage' by inflating their balance sheets 'nominally' (not in real terms), and all the bad debt essentially goes away. Who gets destroyed? Me. You. Anyone who 'did the right thing' and is debt free, saved their entire lives, and was responsible. How about all those knuckleheads that are in hock up to their eyeballs? Won't they benefit a lot?
Yes and no. Their houses will get paid off, perhaps with a few paychecks (unless the banksters add in a clause after the fact, something that likely would be part of some new provision in some BS law, that says you pay in real terms, not nominal, which I truly think they would do, in the old days this was called a 'gold clause'), as will their cars and plasma TV's. But, no matter how much the plan is for a currency reset, wages never keep up with inflations, even planned hyperinflations.
So, their buying power will drop. They will still get a lot from all their stuff being paid off in a few weeks or months, but then their standard of living will be much lower. Hence, the shock of that won't be as bad, since they will own their houses, cars, boats, etc. free and clear, no payments. Unless the banksters do an 'inflation adjustment' to the payments, which I am 99.99% sure they will do. After the fact. Remember, there is no rule of law, only the rule of banksters.
To close, my point is, I finally saw an article that basically sums up my theories, ones that have been somewhat unique even with all the blogs and such out there endlessly discussing this. This article is how I think this is going to play out. Are you ready for some real fun? Is this the fun part? (from Steve Martin). This is the calm before the storm, we are in the eye of the storm. My two cents is, enjoy this like there is no tomorrow, because when you get right down to it, there isn't (that's from 'Vision Quest').
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-13/qbamco-feds-exit
RA
rat89
Rep: 0
Posts: 7,015
it seems so unlikely, but here is the setup anyway just in case....
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JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
For the first time in history, I think I'm posting more on the upcoming demise I see coming than on trading stuff. Right now I'm just a thorn in everyone's side. Some day I suspect everyone will look back at ol' Crazy Jim and say 'Now I know what Jim meant when he said "If you bet the sun is going to blow up and it does, what do you win???" '
http://www.verifythecpi.com/2013/03/february-2013-cpi-report.html
http://www.verifythecpi.com/2013/03/february-2013-cpi-report.html