Okay, I'll start it for this week.

Here's my key thought for the week. The ES went up and up and up, right to that area that I posted for so long on the weekly $SPX. A lot of what was on that chart came from the monthly as well as weekly timeframe. The ES saw it, and dropped off it fairly well. It hit that area just under 1600, and I think we all saw that. It bounced right up to an obvious area, and I think we discussed that in here. Down it went for a 'retest', doing the strong leg into that area off that nice bearish 4PT. Up it went off the 'retest' area, for that monster ramp. It does the TL reaction and fake up over, as I discussed, right to my key // (which is a big bearish flat/4PT hybrid), and down into the KZ, where it reacts. To where? The next smaller KZ.

So, what's the point of all this? It is wedging itself in tighter and tighter. Postponing the decision for as long as possible. This is a phenomenon I have studied quite extensively. It is now at the point where it has to make a decision, tip its hand. Tell us which way it wants to go. And I suspect the move will be strong. They tend to be, in my experience, when they come out of something like this. Most importantly, though, for me, is seeing it was doing this early on, so it could be factored into the potential plays.

Here we sit, then, waiting for 'the big move'. It wants us to think 'up', and it may, indeed, be 'up'. I can't imagine down. Nor can anyone else. But, there are a lot of market predictors calling for 1550. I saw it again on TV, and in more blogs and articles than I can count. So, I'm thinking 1550 is out, or if it hits it, it will be on its way down lower. No matter what it does, the action should be nice.

Great thoughts Jim, thanks for sharing your knowledge as always. Can they wind it tighter and tighter into the fed announcement, fake out and then reverse hard in the 'real' direction? seems too obvious.....I always ask 'what would surprise the most?' and right now it would be a sharp move UP into the fed....

It stucked between TLs. The down sloping one was tested and broken for a while now the game is aroung the up sloping one.

Maybe this ABCD will help it to decide.

And it did... to the upside

I made a 'mistake' in what I said in one or more of my posts. I referred to the key line that I thought this would reach for when it overshot the obvious TL in a head fake snap trap. It did, indeed, go to that line. But, in backing off my chart view I now see that that was a different line it hit, another key line, for sure, but from the lower timeframe. That much higher timeframe line that I thought they'd shoot for was right at today's high (so they did two traps for that obvious TL, of two different degrees). That was also the completion point for this to be a plain old flat ABCD.

As an aside, notice the almost bizarre symmetry of the move from June 10 until today. That has to be someone showing off, in my opinion. Showing his buddies what he can do (some super-big-wig primary dealer for the Fed manipulator), again in my opinion.

Anyway, the higher timeframe key line drew the reaction, and now we see if this sell is for real or if it stops at this 28.75...

fascinating.....