Okay, I'll start it off. I can't say I'm really excited, like I usually do. Maybe that's just me, personally, and maybe it's these 2.75 point for four or five hour deals. I suspect, as I mentioned on Friday with that 'odd' late session pop, that this is going to gap up and do a 'gap and go'. This is substantiated by the 'news' that war is now put way off by the details that were hammered out over the weekend. They now have until like mid-2014 for the final compliance and inspections. Too funny, from an imminent strike to delayed almost a year. I wonder how they are going to get their needed war regardless... So, this 'should' be a large gap up, taking out the all-time high I would suspect tonight or no later than tomorrow. If it doesn't do that, that would be a clue to me.

BTW, India tested a missile today capable of carrying a nuke, with a range of about 3,000 miles, which puts Beijing and Europe in range. All this while Pakistan is adding nukes to its stockpile at a rapid pace, ready for 'tactical nuclear weapons strikes'. I'm sure the warmongers will find/start their war soon somewhere anyway. But, what to do about that gas pipeline issue with Syria... What to do... What a messed up world...

The Euro is below a very nice resistance area. It looks like a great trap - take the triple high and TL just to reverse 15-20 pips higher is my most preferable scenario. Just an observation.

And the Aussie also looks weak against USD.

Boy, this world is in trouble...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/five-years-after-lehman-bis-ex-chief-economist-warns-its-worse-time

The thing is, if the market is about to take off for the final last gasp burst up, the USD would really have to weaken, I would think. If it is about to strengthen, the market should weaken, all things being equal (and they may not be...). We'll see, though, it's hard to know what game they are going to play next, with all that is coming up in the next few weeks...

Jim I don't know if I fully understand your post.

I assume that you meant a strong negative correlation between S&P 500 and US Dollar index. But I thought it should be taken into account only in case of longer time horizon, as for shorter periods there is just too much noise. My point is not to argue that I may be right this time, but to understand how you use this dependence.

I used term correlation just to describe a dependence or mechanism taking place here, but in fact a correlation, as a linear measure, is close to zero e.g. between the Euro (57% of US Dollar currency basket) and ES calculated daily or weekly (data since 2005 till now).

And after FX market opening with a huge gap I know I was wrong with the Euro.

This is interesting. Summers dropped out for the next Fed head. Now they don't even have anyone lined up... Yellen is a no go, Geithner hopefully is also, as he would be an unmitigated nightmare (heck, they all will be...), now what? I think the market didn't like the prospects of Summers, so that should add to the pop. I have no idea how the market is going to see all this, but I'm guessing a gap of 10 or maybe 15. Can't wait to see... The FX is showing big jumps against the dollar (Aussie up like 122 pips right now and rising fast), so that supports the big pop. All is perfectly on schedule.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-15/summers-withdraws-fed-chairman-race

This is quite complex for me to answer in here. If one looks at correlation over a long period it may be low, say even zero. But if it was perfectly 1.00 for half the time, and perfectly -1.00 for the other half, the calculation would should the correlation to be zero. There were times since 2005 when the correlation with the ES and the Euro was as close to 1.00 as one could ever expect to see in the real world. For an extended period it was a running joke how strong the correlation was. Now it is extremely correlated to the AUD/JPY. It depends at any given time what the carry currency of the day is (that expression means the one in favor, not literally the one that they are using on that exact day). All that I know is the dollar has to weaken for the market to make any substantial upward progress. At some point it may go the other way, but not likely. And surely not now, not the way the economy and the machines are set up.

Originally posted by MarcinO

Jim I don't know if I fully understand your post.

I assume that you meant a strong negative correlation between S&P 500 and US Dollar index. But I thought it should be taken into account only in case of longer time horizon, as for shorter periods there is just too much noise. My point is not to argue that I may be right this time, but to understand how you use this dependence.

I used term correlation just to describe a dependence or mechanism taking place here, but in fact a correlation, as a linear measure, is close to zero e.g. between the Euro (57% of US Dollar currency basket) and ES calculated daily or weekly (data since 2005 till now).

Hmmm, the ES indications are for an open just 6.50 higher than the regular futures close, and 5.75 above the after session close. I am thinking this will most likely be like last week, they are suppressing it so they can buy the open at better prices, and it squirts right up the chart from there. We'll see. Maybe I'm not reading it right, maybe it won't be that strong... Yeah, maybe.

Okay, 'the public' is finally 'all in'. We are soooooooo close.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-20/btfath-here-2nd-largest-equity-inflows-2000-bubble-popped