Okay, I'll start it off. I can't say I'm really excited, like I usually do. Maybe that's just me, personally, and maybe it's these 2.75 point for four or five hour deals. I suspect, as I mentioned on Friday with that 'odd' late session pop, that this is going to gap up and do a 'gap and go'. This is substantiated by the 'news' that war is now put way off by the details that were hammered out over the weekend. They now have until like mid-2014 for the final compliance and inspections. Too funny, from an imminent strike to delayed almost a year. I wonder how they are going to get their needed war regardless... So, this 'should' be a large gap up, taking out the all-time high I would suspect tonight or no later than tomorrow. If it doesn't do that, that would be a clue to me.

BTW, India tested a missile today capable of carrying a nuke, with a range of about 3,000 miles, which puts Beijing and Europe in range. All this while Pakistan is adding nukes to its stockpile at a rapid pace, ready for 'tactical nuclear weapons strikes'. I'm sure the warmongers will find/start their war soon somewhere anyway. But, what to do about that gas pipeline issue with Syria... What to do... What a messed up world...

They keep raising the indications. Up +7.00 now at 89.00.

BTW, 89.00 is just 16.00 points from the all-time high. Nah, they won't get that high, no way. Yeah, riiiiiiiiiiiight.

Now 90.00. They keep upping it.

91.00 Wow.

Now 92.00. Up and up.

And it open at hits 96.00 right off the bat. Now 96.50. That's 14.50 up. Hmmm, what was I saying?

97.50. Not long until it gets the all-time high.

98.50. 98.75. All-time high now 6.25 points away.

Thanks for reply. I was looking at this in a too simplified way.

Originally posted by jimkane

This is quite complex for me to answer in here. If one looks at correlation over a long period it may be low, say even zero. But if it was perfectly 1.00 for half the time, and perfectly -1.00 for the other half, the calculation would should the correlation to be zero. There were times since 2005 when the correlation with the ES and the Euro was as close to 1.00 as one could ever expect to see in the real world. For an extended period it was a running joke how strong the correlation was. Now it is extremely correlated to the AUD/JPY. It depends at any given time what the carry currency of the day is (that expression means the one in favor, not literally the one that they are using on that exact day). All that I know is the dollar has to weaken for the market to make any substantial upward progress. At some point it may go the other way, but not likely. And surely not now, not the way the economy and the machines are set up.

Originally posted by MarcinO

Jim I don't know if I fully understand your post.

I assume that you meant a strong negative correlation between S&P 500 and US Dollar index. But I thought it should be taken into account only in case of longer time horizon, as for shorter periods there is just too much noise. My point is not to argue that I may be right this time, but to understand how you use this dependence.

I used term correlation just to describe a dependence or mechanism taking place here, but in fact a correlation, as a linear measure, is close to zero e.g. between the Euro (57% of US Dollar currency basket) and ES calculated daily or weekly (data since 2005 till now).

Actually, I'm not sure how to interpret this, and it will all be academic tomorrow when it explodes up much higher. We just rolled out to the Z contract, and it's contract high was 98.50, so it has actually taken that out. So, the U contract high remains at 1705.00, but the U contract was trading lower by quite a bit. So, the U3 contract, which is still trading, albeit with less liquidity, has hit 1710, well about the all-time high. Hence, has the all-time high been taken out, or not? I'd say it has, handily. But it won't show that way on the #F contract the way eSignal does it (I disagree with how they do it, strongly). So, what will the $SPX show, or the SPY? I don't think it will matter, because once they play some games, bring it in a bit to shake some people out and get better prices for more additions, it should smoke the all-time highs. But, that just my thought, maybe it's done now. I just react to what it does. I don't rely too heavily on my scenarios. They are just a starting framework, and that's it.

Okay, 'the public' is finally 'all in'. We are soooooooo close.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-20/btfath-here-2nd-largest-equity-inflows-2000-bubble-popped