I will start it off.

Thanks, Marcin. The action, in my opinion, has just been spectacular, and I think it is going to get even better. I think something is happening. We'll see.

I have been a big proponent of how high-yield moves with (actually leads) the market, and I have been watching the sell-off in high yield for some time. I also feel it is a monster bubble. I mean, give me a break, the worst kind of junk (high yield = junk bonds, for the uninitiated) paying 5%. 5% was what shorter-term government (i.e. 'risk free') issues paid. Now to get that one must buy the worst junk. And funds everywhere are loaded with it. Nah, that's not yet another recipe for disaster. It's just one more of many, many disastrous side effects of ZIRP. If a selling panic ensues because they realize they overpaid (by a huge amount) and the price is dropping, as the article said, when they get to the illiquid stuff, there will be no bid. Like 'portfolio insurance' in '87 and how it took the stocks down with it, the market will be arbed right down with the junk. Swwoooooooooooooooooosh.

Also, people don't realize that not only is the market just outright manipulated up, but also a big part of all this is that companies have been borrowing hand over fist at essentially zero interest rates and buying back their stock. This runs up the price (they are endlessly bidding it up), but also takes stock out of circulation, so the same earnings (earnings aren't really growing at all, and may even be shrinking) with less shares show up as higher EPS. Hence, the 'growth' to support the rising prices over the years. It's comical. Imagine what happens when prices drop, the companies own all that stock way under what they paid, and they owe all those loans they got to buy the stock. Just imagine.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-09/longest-streak-high-yield-outflows-record-and-why-it-may-get-worse

Nothing new, just a synopsis of my viewpoint, basically. Like I've said for years and years, it will rise until the end of the world as we know it. Then the whole system will collapse. There can be no in between, in my opinion. No 'bear market' then back to business as usual. I may be wrong, there may be a few 'false starts' before it collapses, or it may go in waves, but I'm thinking 'up' until the end. Like running at a cliff. Things are great until they are not great, then it's straight down and splat. We'll see.

I'm trying to enjoy it now, as we sit in the calm eye of the storm. I've got food, electric, water, Internet, and as good a trading market as I could ever ask for. I'll look back at this time with fond memories and longing some day, I'm sure. Sorry I'm such a downer/realist. I wonder if people in Europe thought those ranting about this new guy Hitler and his troop movements were looked at as negative and downers. I don't know, let's ask Neville Chamberlain what he thinks. No, wait, we already did that. How'd that one work out?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-10/train-wreck-coming-david-stockman-warns-all-hell-will-break-loose

Here's why we are totally screwed. It's not new information, I was saying this back when the Fed first started increasing its balance sheet. But it's a good explanation why it will never contract. I'm posting this now because it 'supports' the idea of waves, as I mentioned above. The market tanks, they restart QE. Although I am thinking 'up' until full collapse, there may be a couple sell-offs, then new QE, then eventually a full collapse. The whole thing is crazy, but crazy is going to be it until long after my time is up, of that much I am completely certain.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/8/9_Central_Planners_Now_Fighting_A_War_That_Will_End_In_Tragedy.html

BTW, ES up, high 29.50. Didn't I hear something about 29-30 somewhere? The question is, will it really get going and head for say the 65-70 area? Or just play around with the 'backtest' area around 33-35? Great questions. I can't wait to see the answers.

Regardless of where it goes, it sure does 'see' that 29-30.

If 35 doen't hold, 43 looks like a nice resistance.

1917 today would be great.

Yeah, Marcin, 1917 today sure would be great.

Here's a good overview of the same old, same old, as I've been saying all along. When TSHTF it is really going to be something.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229300