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MarcinO
Rep: 67
Posts: 5,506
I will start it off.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Okay, watch the high. Plenty of time.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
HOD hit, just as it approaches the close.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
They take out the HOD on the reopen. Some surprise, that.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
This long may go right up to that 65-70 area with no pause? Seems unlikely. But, it's a pretty easy management mode situation now, and we see what it does. My preference is that the entirety of the up move is now over, with that little additional push on Marcin's area. But, alas, that may be wishful thinking. It looks incredibly strong.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
This article shows not only how screwed we are, but also what is going to happen, in my opinion, to stock, bonds, and real estate. For example, look at the chart showing the Dow to GDP. But understand, the GDP is 'faked' even more than you already know because it is based on completely fake inflation numbers (increase the inflation numbers and the GDP calculation goes down). 'They' say inflation is under 2%, when in reality, for the middle class, it is 20+% (see verifythecpi.com, for one source).

I won't even get into how many things have went up this last month in my life. It's endless. Everything is going up, and then a few months later, it goes up again, and again, ad nauseam. Anyway, this would then push the overvaluation on that chart much higher. It's just insane. Like I've said for a long, long time, 'fair value' on the S&P, with no Federal Reserve in existence, no fractional reserve lending, a hard money standard, market determined interest rates, a 'fair' tax policy with respect to large corporations, etc., is around 400, maybe a little less. We'll never see any of that, but based on my calculations, that's what it is. Anything above that is 'artificial' and manipulation.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/08/were-relying-on-phantom-wealth-to-fund.html
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Anyway, the short has been triggered, let's see if it develops into anything of note. I'm thinking not, but it is worth a shot, in my opinion, for the advanced trader who can read price action and likely get out before a full hard stop is hit.
JI
jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Die, pig, die!
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
That might be enough of a pullback if this is super-strong. And I suspect it might be. Clue time.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Definitely primed for 'up'. No semblance of weakness left at all. It is what it is.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Here's a post on how I use a select bunch of 'gurus' in a contrary manner. I've been utilizing them for some time now, one for close to fifteen years. Here's how it works. I have two I'm thinking of right now. One does intermediate/long-term 'predictions', and one does short/intermediate-term 'predictions'. Now, the higher timeframe guy, he just made a huge call that says the market is going way up right from here. So, I know it's going down (of course I don't really know this, I'm just saying, according to the theory, which is still a probability game, one tool of many used to find synergies). That has me thinking this is an intermediate-term correction we are in right now.

The shorter-term guy, he says we are headed down, but he will 'flip' if we go up any more from here at all, even by a small amount. That tells me it is going up a bit, then down, as soon as he flips. That way he'll be saying long, and so will the longer-term guy, then it's free to drop. Now, at about the time that the immediate leg is done, the shorter-term guy will flip long, so I'll know when that move is done, and when the entire drop is done, the longer-term guy will flip, and then I'll know that entire move is over.

The longer-term guy, I studied all his calls going back to around the financial crisis. I looked only at calls that said the market was going to do this or that, very specifically. Most calls were what I'd call 'spectacular' calls, in that he was calling for big moves. I created a category of 'exactly wrong at exactly the wrong time'. Now, before I tell you the punch line, let me say that in talking with this gentleman he said that he has predicted every turn in the market over the last say ten to fifteen years, at least six months in advance. I recall debating with him imminently before the 2007 top, and he said I was totally nuts, it was going way, way higher. I said not only is it done, it will take out the 2002 low. I wasn't 'predicting' this, I just knew how bad the crisis was going to be. Yet nowadays he said he called that top six months in advance. I was there, and that's not what happened.

Okay, now the punchline. The number of his predictions in that 'exactly wrong at exactly the wrong time' category? Upper nineties percent. Seriously. The other guy, I marked up a chart of one issue on which he made successive predictions over time. It was comical when you see it that way. Talk about contrarian. I've seen two videos put together, and several articles, one about Greenspan and one of Bern-Qwacke, and it was the same thing. Everything they said was completely and utterly wrong, and their timing couldn't have been worse if they tried.

Now, the point of this post isn't the futility of 'predictions', it's about how I use this sentiment as a useful tool for myself. I study these people, and I see how they are wrong, and I use that. One guy, he gives his expected daily range, and I found that when he is wrong, which is most days, the high or low is 8-10 points from his predicted high or low. So I mark my charts every day, and see how those lines sync up with what I am looking at. And so on, and so on... Thought I'd pass on yet one more way I create tools to better the 'Trading Plan'. You should work to create your own tools, too.
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jimkane
Rep: 3,058
Posts: 33,089
Here's a good overview of the same old, same old, as I've been saying all along. When TSHTF it is really going to be something.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229300