I'll start it off. The big event this week is the Scottish independence vote. A yes vote (which I wish for more than I wish for S&P at 400, and you know how I live for that) would cause a 'wee bit' of volatility. But, alas, I think the odds of that are essentially zero. Why? 'They' don't want it, so the election, like ours with Bush/Gore, will simply be rigged. Now Catalonia, that's a different story. I think they will, indeed, split, but the markets will not react to that at all (or maybe go up a bit just to 'prove' it's nothing to worry about). I suggest being careful around that Scottish voting results time.

And, as I like to say 'That's how ya do it, son'.

Originally posted by jimkane

Theoretically I could see some very skilled countertrend traders being short this right now.

As you can tell, I was cautious in my wording, since I didn't want anyone to be influenced by what I said, given this is an educational forum only. But I wanted people to be able to study this, and what I saw, as it happened. Look at my comments on the way up to this point, try to understand, try to read between the lines, as to what I was thinking, what I was seeing. Try to reconcile why I made such strong bullish comments, and then was all of the sudden bearish, and look what happened (one hint, which I shouldn't give: think about what a professional thinks about a strong run into an area, and think about what an amateur/sucker thinks, and look at my comments).

Recall the comment I send all new readers of the forum about how I have my own way of teaching (give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach him to fish, he eats for a lifetime), how everything I post has a purpose, even it it sounds like endless rambling. Put it all together, and it was there. It's a good thing it happened before I had to quit for the night, or I'd be doing one of those posts where I left it with all bullish comments, was setting this lesson up, and then quit and it did what I wanted, but no one would have probably figured it out, and I'd be saying 'But, really, this was what I expected, you have to believe me...' like I sometimes do. Next time that happens, remember this example.

I better address this briefly, the idea of looking for better prices before the open, hence implying looking for the long side. This did a bullish ABCD off a key area in the overnight, then bounced up in a bearish ABCD, right at a 'backtest' area, and began to roll over. It was rising into the open. To me, if there is any belief in the high area, this is a clear short setup, a 'W2' retest, and down. Newer mentor students (sorry to keep saying that, it's like when I used to take graduate classes, and they also had undergrads in there, same class, but they just didn't do a series of more advanced problems, this forum is book set buyers and mentor students who have signed non-disclosure agreements, and I'm trying to service both) will see something in the price action up that told me that pop might have been it for that sequence/leg up. Put it all together and the options were to play the legs down one at a time, or to ride the 'W2' to play for the bigger move down.

Originally posted by jimkane

If this doesn't hold, then the area of 9.50-10.50 is very key. The decision is, do they bring it in for better prices from here, or play games around the European open, and then bring it in right before our open. This is the stuff I just love.

Timing factor dead on. Check. Sweep down. Check. Now we see. Glad I posted that one before it happened. Pretty frickin' cool, eh?

Originally posted by jimkane

Notice silver. It's back near that 18.185 low, only pennies away. There is a timing factor, too, that says something may happen. I'd guess a sweep down, then a big pop up, then we'll see? Just a thought.

Healthy market:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/algos-gone-wild-baba-glitch-halted-7-seconds-100s-flash-crashes-close

This is just soooooooooooo asinine...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-19/alibaba-breaks-trading-9270-rises-over-98-has-same-capitalization-chevron