Kickin' it off. It's going to get wild. This week is Armstrong's 'Big Bang' date, mentioned at least as early as 1989 in one of his conferences, he said. It's not a date for a market implosion, it's the peak date for government and sovereign debt. Catalonia voted today for independence, a binding vote. The last one was not binding. It was overwhelmingly for secession.

I can find no information on this vote anywhere right now, yet it's over and done. Nothing on ZeroHedge. I find this bizarre. Understand, if any EU country has a secession, it will, in my opinion, begin a waterfall breakup of the EU and the failing of the Euro currency. So, tanks will roll, it will be stopped. But, it may cause massive unrest and even a European war. Markets will move. Hence, this is not a trivial event today. Yet, nothing, no reporting anywhere. I'm... confused...

Okay, ZH does have something on Catalonia.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-27/catalan-separatists-win-close-50-votes-exit-poll

So it turns out that this was an election and that the pro-secession party won by a landslide. Big deal. I read, in many reliable places, this was a binding vote by the people for secession. Now all those articles seemed to have 'disappeared'. I have seen this before, bad info is posted, and then pulled when it is realized it is not correct. That's BS. Anyway, since it was fully expected that this pro-secession party would win, this was known to the market and should have no impact. So, I guess, we have a 'regular' week. The only big event I see is if Yellen's apparent mini stroke at the podium Friday develops into something and she is incapacitated, or dies. Imagine if that happened on the day of Armstrong's Big Bang. That would be trippy. Just musing out loud.

Right. I think they are most likely to send the Euro down a bit tricking retail in, and then reverse.
On M240 it looks pretty bearish now, ready to break 1.11 support. The problem is, they played that game before for example around 1.0850.
For me repetition of that pattern is the most likely scenario. They may send it down to 1.1180, but I would like to see 60 or 40.
This chart looks pretty strange, as I want to show all lines intersections for the levels mentioned, cause they tell a lot about timing.



But if they decide to break below 1.11 I don't think a couple of pips violation is enough, as this support comes from weekly time frame. So the most likely AOC in this case is a wide range around 1.10.

Nice charts, Marcin. I can't see how they wouldn't want to sweep out that higher timeframe chart. Just look at all those lows calling out...

Early indications on the ES are to open down a couple of points. The Euro is indicated down maybe 15 pips. This can change as it gets closer, and rocket launches off the open happen, so even the indications may not be too 'indicative'.

ES opens and starts to drop, but will it actually try to take out that Friday low? It's not acting like it now, but it's early. That 1900's area calls, and then there is the Thursday low. I have hope.

My comment on the Euro was actually compared to the last tick trade on Friday. Based on the 'RTH' close, it opened where I thought, but that's about flat based on the close. Not that it matters.

So, the consensus among the 'smart money' is QE4, ban cash, and go negative 5% (and head to -15% if needed) on the rates. I can't even begin to imagine what will be left of the world, or pension funds, insurance companies, and the money market, after that happens. And I suspect it may. Yet if sovereigns start defaulting rates will climb aggressively, so we'd have an odd scenario. Countries won't be able to borrow basically at all, with rates sky high, but the central banks will fix the short end at -15%. Long end for most countries at say 35%, short end at -15%, and the central banks buying up the long end hand over fist in QE's. Not to mention how will goverments 'afford' 35% rates? Of course they'll do what they do now, borrow on the short end and roll over endlessly, until the short end rises and they are bankrupt beyond imagination. More can kicking. I just can't reconcile how this is going to work...

I think it's time for the ES to rise now.

And it did, but only for 5.50 points by my data, and back down. A retest, or weakness? We shall see. I'm hoping it's weakness. But watch the 15-min upsloping TL it's just made a fourth contact at right here.

Originally posted by jimkane

I think it's time for the ES to rise now.

Lots of great posts this week, guys.
I'll be off the forum until Thursday unfortunately.