ES Tuesday 11-1-16
How I see the numbers - we have 22 - 23 as a possible magnet but have yet to find a short in overnight for that retest.....we need to watch the ranges of yesterday close today...was friday a valid sell and now they accepted the lower prices yesterday or is it just a giant "b " pattern which shows shorts struggling to drive it down..? I don't know but will use caution today just in case..aggressive traders ( which might be me now) could sell the VA high of yesterday at 25.50 but would need to be prepared in case they want to test YD's RTH highs up at the poc of overnight at 27.75 again ...the overnight is a dangerous place but it's after 9 a.m so a bit safer time........
we have a gap in the data at 23 so if short I'd cover at 20 - 21 lows and look for longside entry...for me that will happen in the 20 - 21 area but not going to be a knuckle head about it as yesterdays RTH lows would be the better spot to try this from,,,we have a volume divergence but no $tick divergence yet
for those who want to live on the edge and follow a video I made while in a trade...always a nail bitter for me....the video adds an additional element of stress which nobody really needs while trading but wanted to post my thoughts on $ticks and the price action while unfolding....
averaged in at 18.25 but we do NOT have the classic $tick divergence on the break of yesterdays lows and the S1....would prefer to see that and a gap in the data is my least favorite TARGET and can take a long time to achieve so as much as I would like this trade to work to make money and demonstrate the $tick trade it just might not work.......hoping we can see some divergence otherwise that gap at 23 means nothing and we can't hold on to longs just because of that ......not gonna be foolish but seeing volume dry up and $tick dry up would be cool to see now UNDER yd's lows
taking the loser at 17.50...will try one more time
ok...I can't always plan a video to match a winning trade so that is a good thing...this last one just follows my next long trade and why it's possible won't pan out.....again the focus is on the $ticks in these videos but we are having volume dry up as price moves off the lows which is the opposite of what we want to see on a long fade down here..trying for 18.50 test first which may be difficult
did't mention where I got filled and that price was 16.50....in my haste and making that video I forgot to mention that....but the concept of retesting is probably what should be taken from that last video.....the $Tick diverged and then price came back to test yd's lows....The divergence in the $tick tells us that it is possible that at that point in time the sellers where less aggressive...so if there are less sellers then the market will rise....even if it is only slightly....unfortunately I have yet to capture a trade where we have volume and $tick diverging with price in a video....the screenshots are easier but I wanted to get one as it unfolds
good volume into S2..$tick and price making new lows and good volume....now we would need price to make new lows with lower volume and higher $ticks...and fyiw , I have yet to make more than 2 pts per contract on any trade today except for my small overnight short......and this includes the $tick trades posted...so not a great day for core trades and certainly not for runners...for the most part we have seen volume fall off as price retraces up...I think that is the big "take away" if any from this series of posts and videos....we want those new lows on low volume and higher $tick which we just aren't seeing yet...this is the first time as I type that we see new lows on lower volume and higher $tick into the 2112- 2113 ( last weeks lows)
.finally caught the ideal setup conditions while in a trade on video .......this may not do much but the CONTEXT was there on this long...especially since we were approaching last weeks lows.....all ingredients are here on this last one...
coming out heavy at 17...one tic shy of current one minute poc....will try to hold two runners......finally we caught a good one and to get it on video is hopefully a plus for somebody...not looking for pity or anything but making a video and trading is very stressful...I'm actually sweating....LOL....well lets hope we can get some more out of this
runners are gonna try for 19 and the 22.25...not babysitting this ( wife will) ....13.25 is plan for stop on last two runners...keeping it wide
Thanks Sharks...I was kinda doing someone a favor who wanted to understand these $tick trades a bit more,,,,,I think most get the point and hopefully will watch over time what makes some divergences better than others......and yes, it was too many vids.......it would have been nice if the first one was a "classic" divergence but in a way it's good to see a few variations too......but I certainly don't suggest trading while doing a video and for the most part it takes a special kind of nutjob( I guess that's me) to post while trading in general...thanks for your comments
Originally posted by sharks57
Your a video making machine today....
Good Trading in a downtrend type day..