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ES 6-13-17


OK...end of video was trying to say that current overnight high has stopped one Point shy of R2 today at least so far....my bias is to downside as I do not think they are going to run up to the weekly R1 before printing the weekly pivot at 2428, overnight inventory is long .....and the thin area of fridays profile runs from 2429.50 - 2432.50 but the key are to me is really going to be the number at 30.75........that is key test point from up here and will look to shorts at the 32 - 34 edge now in overnight...going to add to this post and make an additional video as I am unsure if my thoughts came across
No video below? Try this link: Tuesday.swf









here is part two...redundant at times but want to drive home a few things and I can't always convey what runs through my simple mind
No video below? Try this link: tuesday_part_2.swf









I split out the "I" and "j" period from Fridays chart to show the two separate distributions or at least the key part that fits on my screen and snapped a line at the 30.50
Click image for original size
daysession
Go within 2 ticks of my 2nd target (31.50).. still managing trade here. With you Bruce on this!
my final thoughts here for today...not sure if runners can work any more magic but sellers want to keep this under overnight highs and need Ym to get under Mondays highs to accelerate downside.....
No video below? Try this link: thoughts.swf






Out at 32 even.. I didn't want to be a dick for 2 ticks
you would think with a true gap and go we would see the first hour volume stronger than yesterday and friday but it is way off.....this ym / es divergence has us all confused....I sold SPY calls that expire tomorrow....I'd really like to get rid of them today for a profit but if we start coming outside 2437.50 then I will think about closing them ...juts seems like more back and forth day traders again...let's see what happens now as Es goes into R2 again as Ym tries o get out of fridays highs once more
Looks like the YM is breaking down now Bruce, and You'll get your 30.50 number. I'm on stand-by

Great analysis today!
hope u r right...I'm trying to hold....was watching closely as Ym tried to get out of Fridays high and failed again but not convinced that this is it.....could just be more two sided battles between small fry traders like me..........good thing is that volume isn't expanding on the move up so far today which may help us mean revert back down
Originally posted by Avid

Looks like the YM is breaking down now Bruce, and You'll get your 30.50 number. I'm on stand-by

Great analysis today!
and thanks for the kind words
In daltons original book he talks about low time areas...basically the single prints and compares it to a pin hitting a balloon...you can only poke the balloon so many times before it pops.....so I am hoping that we are poking down into this low time spot and soon it will bust and give way....the buyers will step away...it's a great analogy...but lets see if it can work for us today..so far so good
damn ym is still trying to hold this up...really not giving up much as ES tries to sell
Now if we can just get Blue, Monkey Meat, Red Six Speed, and Charter Joe back posting, we'd really be doing this 'old school'..
a great example today so far in hindsight as to why gaps in the data alone are high risk trades....u really need context....on closer examination I see gaps now at 33.75 , 37 even and way down at 30.75........this low volume may be playing tricks and giving us more gaps then we can handle , therefore it is so important to have some context or some other reason besides JUST a gap to take a position.......


ok, my conscience is clear now that I said that !!!
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