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ES 7-31-17


Confluence with Daily R1 at 73 - 74 area and then R2 at 77 - 78 this morning if you are trading early...will edit and post a video soon for those interested..keep in mind that friday was an inside balancing day so if breakout traders are going to show up then these are the type of days they like to run breakouts from.


edit : Lines I am working from today
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what happened in the overnight and a weekly probability concept you shouldn't miss
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as long as 2468 holds today then I am trading for trade that goes 5 points above the open print but will take something off at 2475.75..ideal day session longs will come from either the 70 - 71 area or that 67-68 ...aggressive traders can just get long in the overnight as long as we are two points or less under that 2475 target
almost on schedule......look at the time...? It's 11 a.m and target just hit...$ Tick distribution seems to be trying to change...we will need to get at least two tics above that "C" period high to have one time framing technically over...My runners are going to try for that 71 area retest but that may be pushing my luck ,,,,two tpo;s now at last weeks VA low and they may want to put in more........this is a great example of just how difficult the weekly POC idea is posted in the first post today can be.....but look at all the examples I went over and you can see that it is not uncommon to have moves in the opposite direction first........we'll see if that is the case this week...a more conservative trader will use credit spreads to limit risk on those trades.......long term u can see that todays RTH high matches the overnight high....that is a "no-no" in my book and just a matter of time before that gets cleaned up
final target on day trades for me today will be 2470 even and I'll let somebody else get fridays high if they have some muscle in here today
forgot to post...spy options were sold at .49 ......currently worth .66...so net loser so far....we;ll see how day ends as we don't want to have a loss get too out of hand even if the probability is there
so far today is the "b" profile which implies ( in theory) longs liquidating a bit but not new shorts ...this could just be an adjustment to the overnight trades...we are only 3 points under Fridays close so I wouldn't become too bearish in here
day trades are done for the day.. a bit of overtime today...we'll see where options are at at days end....still think Fridays high should get tested but as usual I want to get out sooner then later and don't want to be here all day...that 2470 print filled in single prints for those who were closely watching and wondering why that made a good target
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