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ES short term trading 6-30-10


In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!
trade back to 40.75 wil stop last two runners...we are dreanming if we are hoping to catch a trend on a consolidation day....so runnerss are at risk


dreaming of profits on consolidation day = higher risk = runners in peril!!
Do you guys look at divergences between the big 4 contracts (ES, YM, NQ, TF) in regards to your strategies? Specifically the NQ has made a new low (granted only by .25) while the other three are well above (relatively speaking) there respective lows.
Originally posted by BruceM

Logic which always doesn't work is telling me that the POC from today is at 38 area which is lower that the 42.50 from yesterday....and we are consolidating lower so they are accepting the lower prices......

I'd be hard pressed to go long here....but that is logic....as we all know anything can and does happen in the market....if prices are such a bargain down here then why haven't they rallies it yet??


will see if my logic wins out..



True, we're below yesterday's POC, but almost all of today's session has been inside yesterday's VA.
We have also been inside the O/N range as well.

Nothing has been revealed, nothing has been resolved IMO.

I do recognize a slight bearish bias to the afternoon session, but it's been hard for me to find a good short entry. For instance, we haven't been able to even tag 1039.25 after the final break below, which is where I'd prefer to enter short....
Originally posted by phileo

Originally posted by BruceM

Logic which always doesn't work is telling me that the POC from today is at 38 area which is lower that the 42.50 from yesterday....and we are consolidating lower so they are accepting the lower prices......

I'd be hard pressed to go long here....but that is logic....as we all know anything can and does happen in the market....if prices are such a bargain down here then why haven't they rallies it yet??


will see if my logic wins out..



True, we're below yesterday's POC, but almost all of today's session has been inside yesterday's VA.
We have also been inside the O/N range as well.

Nothing has been revealed, nothing has been resolved IMO.

I do recognize a slight bearish bias to the afternoon session, but it's been hard for me to find a good short entry. For instance, we haven't been able to even tag 1039.25 after the final break below, which is where I'd prefer to enter short....


LOL, as soon as i posted this, i noticed that price broke below yesterday's VAL.
took one off at 33.25....got one left...how about my 27 number......? not gonna happen for me..stop is above opening range high of today on last contact
What do you use as the opening range if I may ask?

Cheers.
Here is the trade I was talking about and just exited.


Click image for original size
2010 06 30 toscharts


It even went down further than I projected. Hope you guys got this one
flat 31.25...that's a rat!! anybody using them ???


opening range to me is 1st minute Lorn...and welcome here....same to u David...from your earlier post...welcome to the forum
yes but I prefer only the YM and ES....
Originally posted by Lorn

Do you guys look at divergences between the big 4 contracts (ES, YM, NQ, TF) in regards to your strategies? Specifically the NQ has made a new low (granted only by .25) while the other three are well above (relatively speaking) there respective lows.
theres your 27 bruce!
"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"