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ES Thursday 12-18-14


gonna kick it off with trying to answer a few questions from Tuesday trades....
No video below? Try this link: lesson_trade.swf








and here is "M" pattern from today...trade it at your own risk like all of this stuff
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key numbers for Wednesday Overnight and Thursday....employment report at 8;30 EST

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vwap
sure wish I new that stuff too...so many things in my brain I'd like hard core data on
Originally posted by NewKid

i need to burn that into my memory!

for your other question, i have not back tested the 30-min VPOC test but I think it is a worthwhile endeavor. i will try doing the last few months by hand, see how the results look and then continue looking further back as needed.

i am not sure how to automate that testing so i will try it by hand.
I think many will b using 36 - 37 as the dividing line now...bearish below and bullish above....they sure seems to be giving the look of bearish to me......must mean they will run it higher ...ha !!
i am not trading but if i were to place a bet, i say we go high from up here. i think they defend that VAL

Originally posted by BruceM

i'd like to see a third tpo print down at that 33..so far we have had only two tpo's...the first 30 minute bar and now the 3rd 30 minute bar of the day...selling tail and buying tail in the market...which one will be erased ?
so far all we really know is they opened and drove out of value then back in...then they retested and are popping back up into value....so how many times can we stick a pin in a balloon at the same spot before it actually pop's ? that's what I am watching for with these va low tests...perhaps it won't pop today but the more we test into that va low the worse it should get for bulls...more bulls will start to cover and SELL......at least in theory...heck, that's what i would be doing if I was long and we kept hitting into a key low over and over
someone doesn't like our posts today......votes are actually going down.........I'm insulted ....LOL !! perhaps somebody is hitting the wrong button...perhaps Dt should add a means to go into NEGATIVES....imagine we could have minus votes....that might get brutal
market is one time framing DOWN and value is overlapping to lower that 12- 11
if you guys don't mind, i am going to start posting all my trades here.i have not been doing so because of fear of public embarrassment but i think that is exactly what i need. i am not disciplined with my stops and that has been burning me. maybe you guys commenting on it might knock some sense into me.

this AM in ETH i took a short at 30.5 thinking it was a LVN from 12/10 and 12/11 and was looking for the O/N singles at 23. Instead i held and held and finally stopped out at 39.5 to take a 9 point loss.

i should have stopped myself out much sooner than that and taken the short that i had identified at 34.75 which was the POC from the past with an exit at 30.
anyone out there who can back test the idea of how often we hit at least two of the standard pivot numbers ? For example today we hit R2 today and I'd like to know how often we will hit another pivot derived number ...like the R3 or the R1.....

so if we would have hit the Pivot itself then i would want to know how often we would print the R1 OR the S1......it doesn't matter which one as long as some other pivot number prints...if we hit two today then we will either hit R1 at 22.75 ( hey , my greenie is near there) or go to R3.....way up at 2078...it would be useful to know some stats on that....."anybody, anybody ...Bueller ! "...you'd have to have seen the movie !!
the pivot test might be easier to do than the VPOC test. i will look into that. my wife is an excel wizard so i will ask for her help.
if i can somehow figure out a way to download the VPOC data, it would make life so much easier! there has to be a way, just trying to figure it out.
i think i figured it out. stay tuned for the results on the 30-min VPOC. i will see if i can get something out today
no..I never trade at this time...never do after market trading but will sometimes take trades around 9 a.m EST...but even then it would be small
Originally posted by NewKid

Bruce, are you trading for those greenies?