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18 May 2005

All times are ET (GMT-5)

Session Start: Wed May 18 08:50:40 2005
Session Ident: #t1

[09:32:09] <guy> Shorts AB @ 600.5
[09:32:29] <guy> exit stop set AB @ 601.5
[09:34:31] <guy> Covered all Short AB at 601.1 --> - 0.6

[09:41:34] <guy> Buys AB @ 600.5
[09:42:08] <guy> exit stop set AB @ 599.5

[09:46:33] <guy> If you have esignal and want to see the charts that i'm posting pop up in the esignal chat window then here is how to do it: (you don't have to leave mirc but just log in with another nick and use the esignal chat window to join #t1)

[09:50:30] <guy> stop hit AB @ 599.5 --> - 1

[09:59:31] <guy> Buys AB @ 599.5
[09:59:56] <guy> exit stop set AB @ 598.5
[10:05:35] <guy> exit stop moved to breakeven AB @ 599.5

[10:07:22] <guy> alpha is still on long side here guys
[10:07:25] <guy> and girls
[10:11:15] <guy> gator: first trade this morning was a market profile trade with alpha confirm
[10:11:24] <guy> did not work out
[10:11:31] <guy> alpha only signalled short for 2 bars
[10:11:45] <guy> and that's why i got out as soon as possible
[10:11:52] <guy> since then no MP trades and just trading alpha
[10:12:10] <guy> and as you can see alpha is screaming long so i'm working the long side as much as possible until the signal dies
[10:14:49] <Kalle> and that's the case if the histogram crosses below zero line ?
[10:15:14] <guy> if hist goes below zero it means that alpha thinks that the ER2 is overvalued

[10:15:39] <Kalle> ok
[10:15:48] <guy> but values between -1 and 1 are noise
[10:15:56] <guy> so now it's +.58
[10:16:01] <guy> so slight up bias
[10:16:16] <guy> and except for 1st 2 bars - been up bias all morning

[10:20:04] <guy> IMHO - on that last push up - it looked like we were finding new business up there
[10:20:18] <guy> which makes me think the long side is safe to stay on
[10:20:24] <guy> and alpha confirms that
[10:20:33] <guy> so i'm going to wait it out for now
[10:21:32] <guy> what do we think up here? initiativ buying? or shorts covering?
[10:21:49] <guy> and will the oil report in 8 minutes destroy my trade?
[10:22:42] <Kalle> if you trust in the system the answer to the question is already given :)

[10:24:23] <guy> exit stop raised AB @ 599.7
[10:24:37] <guy> putting in a 2 tick buffer in case oil makes it break
[10:24:45] <guy> to try and cover slippage
[10:24:56] <guy> kalle: you're 100% :)

[10:25:10] <Kalle> good decision, oil rep is always tricky

[10:34:40] <guy> question now is - when do we exit
[10:34:44] <guy> look at the chart
[10:34:50] <guy> the k-line is +2 ish
[10:35:10] <guy> alpha is par which means neither long nor short - fairly valued
[10:35:29] <guy> but when we're at extremes (hod/lod) we pay a lot of attention to k-line

[10:38:07] <guy> coomments on that lst chart i just posted:
[10:38:24] <guy> last time we saw this price in ER2 it was in last 15min of day
[10:38:30] <guy> and was the resistance level
[10:38:46] <guy> this time we hit it in 3rd bracket
[10:38:51] <guy> and bust through it
[10:39:08] <guy> on what is currently a "gap and go" day

[10:43:49] <guy> the grey dotted lines are the IB
[10:44:31] <guy> so we have range extension to the upside
[10:44:52] <guy> and (IMO) this is RE with some conviction
[10:45:01] <guy> i.e. didn't just quickly spike and move back
[10:45:11] <guy> held up there for a while and traded some volume
[10:45:18] <guy> let's see if it does that again...
[10:45:49] <guy> this spike in oil is taking some of the shine of the ER2
[10:46:27] <guy> maybe my chart had a glitch - just looked like oil spiked up but it's back down now...
[10:46:30] * guy confused

[10:54:48] <guy> okay - i'm taking a break here
[10:54:55] <guy> hard stop in at 599.7
[10:55:03] <guy> don't know why we aren't shooting up now?
[10:55:10] <guy> because oil is going south
[10:55:15] <guy> something fishy...

[11:16:14] <guy> see how value area has shifted up?
[11:16:30] <guy> and instead of DVAH forming floor
[11:16:41] <guy> now DPOC is forming a type of floor

[11:17:37] <guy> confirmed singles at 601.8

[12:18:52] <guy> Exited Long AB @ 607 --> + 7.5
[12:18:52] <guy> Reverse and Enter Short AB @ 607
[12:19:35] <guy> exit stop set AB @ 608

[12:25:01] <guy> reason for reverse: blue dotted line which is DIBL and k-line on alpha
[12:25:25] <guy> but i might be up against a stronger trend than i was expecting

[12:30:36] <guy> thx - think i'm going to lose the next one though...
[12:32:05] <Kalle> don't u postulate a positive attitude ? ;)))
[12:33:06] <guy> :)
[12:33:11] <guy> need more karma
[12:39:37] <guy> stop hit AB @ 608 --> - 1

[12:45:05] <guy> shows a single line
[12:45:12] <guy> and alpha k-line is short
[12:45:25] <guy> but i'm staying out because i got stopped out of the DIBL trade
[12:45:34] <guy> and alpha itself isn't signalling
[12:45:49] <guy> in fact alpha is saying long
[12:45:55] <guy> only k-line is saying short
[12:46:08] <guy> taking a break...

[12:53:03] * Disconnected
Session Close: Wed May 18 12:53:07 2005
how many of these 4 trades were MP trades?
The first and last trades were MP trades.

The first one was an OR trade back to the previous day's VA with confirm from alpha. Confirm died 2 mintes after I took the trade so closed it out.

Last trade was a short off DIBH without any resistance (although no confirmation either) from alpha.

I can say with hindsight that the last trade taken was a bad decision and that I ignored alpha (and its lack of confirmation) because the 3rd trade was so profitable that I had adopted a mental attitude of "I can risk this because I have already made tons today" - which is an exceptionally bad mental approach to take to trading.
7.5 points in 1 trade in ER2 is a very respectable profit. I'm impressed with this - true style of letting the winners run and cutting the losers. 1 winner and 3 losers but plenty of profit.
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