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25 May 2005 (Wednesday)

Session Start: Wed May 25 07:40:31 2005
Session Ident: #t1

[09:24:58] <guy> current market in perspective
[09:25:05] <guy> shows high/low from yest.
[09:25:05] <guy2>
[09:25:11] <guy> and current trading
[09:29:21] <guy> good luck everyone
[09:31:52] <mashhad> is your alpha neg. for the 1st min?
[09:34:27] <guy> yes mash
[09:34:36] <guy> -.5 on ER2
[09:34:47] <mashhad> ok
[09:35:46] <guy> and about the same on ES
[09:36:43] <guy> here is ES chart:
[09:36:52] <guy2>
[09:37:04] <guy> and here is ER2 chart:
[09:37:16] <guy2>

[09:38:23] <guy> limit to enter short AB @ 611.3

[09:38:36] <guy> subject to alpha readings at that level
[09:46:14] <guy> .
[09:46:19] <guy> alpha is saying down
[09:46:23] <guy2>
[09:46:41] <guy> and i haven't been able to find a GREAT risk/return area to enter short yet so will wait...
[09:56:20] <guy> notice how alpha is short
[09:56:27] <guy2>
[09:56:33] <guy> and has been all morning
[09:56:41] <guy> keeping us out of taking a long trade

[10:00:44] <guy> cancelled all open limit orders

[10:02:27] <guy> Here is the ES chart:
[10:02:36] <guy2>
[10:02:38] <guy> and this is why I would stay out of a long on the ES right now
[10:05:36] <fspeculator> but where to ewnter a good short???
[10:06:00] <guy> excellent question fspec
[10:06:10] <guy> i was trying up at VAL but never got there
[10:06:17] <fspeculator> i'm waiting @ 10507
[10:06:26] <fspeculator> far away, but you never know
[10:06:33] <guy> now I'm watching the possible areas of sup/res and trying to pick a place with good alpha readings
[10:06:56] <fspeculator> unless it leaves singles here and we catch it at the noon retrace back up
[10:07:04] <guy> i'm watching 607.5 in ER2 - this is the highest volume over the 5 trading sessions 2 to 6 sessions ago
[10:07:14] <fspeculator> this rally was just short covering
[10:07:19] <fspeculator> no volume at all
[10:07:27] <guy> if you look at the ER2 on
[10:07:36] <guy> you can see 607.5 as a high volume area
[10:07:50] <guy> and i want to see what alpha says at that level
[10:12:05] <guy> mash: notice how trading the basic MP trades didn't work out on that trade and watching alpha "filters" out that trade?
[10:13:13] <mashhad> yes
[10:13:13] <guy> fspec - i see plenty of volume
[10:13:29] <fspeculator> i mean nyse vol
[10:13:40] <guy> k
[10:14:14] <guy> well this took off and never gave me a chance to enter but kept me out of trying to get long so I'm happy with that
[10:19:00] <fspeculator> you meant, buy the yVAL?
[10:22:29] <guy> no
[10:22:48] <guy> [09:38:23] <guy> limit to enter short AB @ 611.3
[10:24:13] <fspeculator> i mean what your trade perJP's MP today in ES?
[10:24:27] <fspeculator> wouldn't it be buy yVAL?
[10:24:37] <fspeculator> (without your indic filter)
[10:25:34] <guy> yes correct fspec
[10:25:47] <guy> that's exactly what it prevented me from doing in the ES
[10:26:07] <guy> and it made me try and enter at the VAL for a short in the ER2
[10:26:09] <guy> but also
[10:26:21] <guy> it kept me out of trying to buy this falling market
[10:26:31] <guy> because alpha is saying keep short
[10:26:34] <guy> so if I was short
[10:26:40] <guy> it would keep me in the market
[10:27:05] <guy> and if i was thinking about getting long for some reason (say a pivot point or single print) it would keep me out of the long
[10:27:31] <guy> so on this chart of the ES right now for example:
[10:27:41] <guy> alpha is saying short the ES here
[10:27:48] <guy2>
[10:28:08] <fspeculator> would you front-run the unconfirmed single @ 71 in YM?
[10:28:51] <guy> i dont have any YM charts up atm so can't comment. can you post an image for me?
[10:28:58] <fspeculator> it's suych a pity there there are so few contributing traders here in irc
[10:29:43] <fspeculator>
[10:31:20] <guy> i will look shortly - just watching oil now after that eia report
[10:31:46] <guy> er2 single long here
[10:32:10] <fspeculator> imo forget the oil reports
[10:32:16] <fspeculator> money has no refuge
[10:32:23] <guy2>
[10:32:26] <fspeculator> so they go to commodities to protect themselves
[10:40:11] <mashhad> man, your alpha has been right all day in determining the direction, just no entry signal!
[10:42:28] <guy> fspec: just looked at your chart - yes i would front run those but up to 5 ticks if alpha was strong enough
[10:42:47] <guy> mash: i agree, alpha is a confirming indicator
[10:42:56] <tuna> any thoughts on these er singles?
[10:43:03] <guy> sometimes i use it by itself and i call that a pure alpha trade
[10:43:27] <guy> but i like to pick areas of support and reversal and then if alpha confirms then that makes it a great setup
[10:43:41] <guy> if alpha points in the other direction then i stay out and it saves me money
[10:44:00] <guy> tuna: the ones at 604.9 ?
[10:44:08] <tuna> yep
[10:44:31] <guy> well the k-line on the alpha indicator has gone positive
[10:44:35] <guy2>
[10:44:44] <guy> which is a good thing for the long off those singles
[10:44:51] <guy> and alpha itself is not short
[10:45:01] <tuna> thx
[10:45:34] <guy> so that improves the R/R
[10:46:04] <guy> y/w
[10:46:56] <guy> oil is farily strong atm since that EIA report
[10:47:15] <guy> i think that if oil were to break from where it is now we would get some joy from that ER2 single long
[10:49:32] <mashhad> are u talking about the singles from the 18th?
[10:53:24] <tuna> yes sir
[10:53:57] <guy> we're not getting any joy from oil i'm afraid
[10:54:29] <guy> however on the bright side the equity indices aren't breaking because of this oil rally
[10:55:02] <tuna> funny,, inventories are at a 6 year high
[10:55:07] <guy> our forward testing 'single print' strategy is long from 605.0 now
[10:55:27] <guy> and has targets at 606, 607 etc.
[10:55:49] <guy> tuna: markets are not always logical
[10:55:56] <guy> but i agree with you
[10:55:58] <fspeculator> tuna see my previous comments
[10:56:03] <fspeculator> oil is just a refuge for wealth
[10:56:39] <fspeculator> a store of value that gov can't create from thin air
[10:56:59] <fspeculator> and which has certain demand
[10:57:17] <fspeculator> people do what they have to do, to preotect themselves
[10:58:26] <tuna> if i cover this here it should rocket
[11:01:53] <fspeculator> now we have singles in es and YM
[11:01:58] <fspeculator> don't monitor ER
[11:02:22] <fspeculator> ER too @ 608.7
[11:05:15] <guy> correct, confirmed singles in ER2 at 608.7
[11:07:36] <guy> Chart of ER2 showing singles:
[11:07:54] <guy2>
[11:08:13] <guy> also shows that alpha is flat - i.e. neither sell nor buy
[11:08:22] <guy> and k-line is in buy mode
[11:09:10] <tuna> hmm,, i havent covered yet so prolly just stay here
[11:10:32] <guy> tuna: i think that your risk return is good
[11:10:49] <guy> on a scale of 1 to 5 i'd put you at 4
[11:11:10] <tuna> cool
[11:11:11] <guy> with 1=bad, 2=poor, 3=average, 4=good, 5=great
[11:12:32] <tuna> gimme 7.20
[11:12:40] <guy> :)
[11:13:07] <guy> will be recording at least an $80 profit on this single trade
[11:13:15] <guy> stop is now at 605.00
[11:14:35] <tuna> nice
[11:15:27] <guy> interestingly it is unable to run to its final target because of the single at 608.7
[11:16:21] <guy> i'm wrong
[11:16:22] <tuna> nahh its cuz im still in
[11:16:42] <guy> it can - we can run both a short and a long strategy at the same time
[11:17:02] <guy> they are independent of each other
[11:21:17] <tuna> put some lipstick on this pig
[11:21:38] <tuna> use a trowel
[11:23:45] <guy> JavaGuest(s): you can change your nicks by typing: /nick ThisIsMyNickName
[11:25:02] <guy> the market is doing very well considering what oil is up to
[11:26:02] <tuna> yeah,,u ever look at trading qm guy?
[11:26:10] <tuna> with MP
[11:26:31] <guy> no tuna, what about you?
[11:26:37] <tuna> no
[11:26:49] <tuna> but capotrader does
[11:27:01] <tuna> he says it works well
[11:27:12] <guy> does he trade anything else?
[11:27:28] <tuna> not sure
[11:28:07] <tuna> gimme 7.20
[11:30:47] <fspeculator> guys are you following winxp login prompt discussion in emini???
[11:33:49] <tuna> 270k on es
[11:35:34] <tuna> no fspec im watching er2 going nowhere
[11:36:03] <tuna> 'they' are trying my patience
[11:37:15] <tuna> gimme 7.20
[11:41:28] <guy2>
[11:42:39] <tuna> well,, i guess i have that going for me
[11:43:14] <tuna> thx guy
[11:44:37] <fspeculator> guy you use RF in your trading?
[11:45:20] <tuna> gimme 7.20
[11:47:03] <guy> yes fspec
[11:47:12] <guy> but only as a very small part
[11:47:22] <guy> i haven't defined anything serious about it yet
[12:02:14] <guy2>
[12:06:13] <guy> here comes your 607.2 tuna!!
[12:07:26] <tuna> gimme!
[12:07:35] <guy> 2 more ticks...
[12:07:49] <guy> did you get a fill there?
[12:07:57] <tuna> thank you sir
[12:08:07] <guy> y/w :)
[12:08:36] <mashhad> what was ur entry Tuna?
[12:08:37] <guy> that adds $200 to the single prints strategy :)
[12:08:56] <tuna> excelent
[12:09:28] <tuna> 605
[12:09:35] <tuna> mash
[12:09:37] <mashhad> nice
[12:09:58] <tuna> front ran em a bit
[12:09:58] <guy> good patience on your hold there tuna
[12:10:11] <guy> why did you chose 607.2 as your exit?
[12:10:40] <tuna> i did some gardening,,had to walk away
[12:10:59] <tuna> vwap guy
[12:11:12] <guy> k
[12:13:27] <tuna> now lets get that short above
[12:15:19] <tuna> sox is back in value
[12:32:36] <guy> alpha has taken a more pessemistic view of the situation now
[12:32:37] <guy2>
[12:39:34] <tuna> what does it say on a sox chart guy?
[12:42:44] <guy> what do you mean tuna?
[12:42:45] <guy2>
[12:43:35] <guy> .
[12:43:39] <guy> here is the ER2 chart:
[12:43:48] <guy> which looks like a short on the single
[12:43:57] <guy2>
[12:46:35] <tuna> just wondering what alpha shows on the sox
[12:46:59] <tuna> i show it back in value
[12:49:07] <tuna> which keeps me biased from shorting nq
[12:52:36] <guy> alpha is dissabled for symbols such as the sox but DVATool will work on it
[12:54:52] <guy> here is the $sox with DVATool and IBTool on it:
[12:54:56] <guy2>
[13:00:56] <guy2>
[13:02:03] <tuna> thx guy
[13:02:11] <mashhad> how come there are 2 ES factors?
[13:02:58] <mashhad> are they the same or do they measure different thi\ngs?
[13:03:06] <guy> because I have the RFTool loaded onto 2 different ES charts
[13:03:16] <guy> no they are the same
[13:03:23] <mashhad> ok
[13:03:28] <guy> you can load the RFTool onto as many charts as you want
[13:03:41] <guy> i created a duplicate ES chart and forgot to remove the RFTool from it
[13:04:15] <guy> say you want to know what the RF is for the ES, YM, NQ, ER2, $SOX, $INDU etc.
[13:04:35] <guy> then you load the RFTool onto each chart and on each half hour it will do the math for you
[13:04:40] <guy> and if you want sound an alarm
[13:04:57] <guy> so you know that we've moved into a new MP bracket
[13:05:12] <mashhad> ok
[13:32:18] <guy2>
[13:57:31] <tuna> back to the vwap
[14:15:24] <fspeculator> guy what is your indic saying?
[14:15:33] <fspeculator> are we to take the short @ singles?
[14:16:05] <fspeculator> systems reverse @ 93
[14:16:15] <fspeculator> so it could be some fireworks on the way up
[14:22:21] <guy2>
[14:24:30] <guy2> yes - alpha is giving good short calls on these moves up
[14:25:13] <guy2> ES looking similar:
[14:25:29] <tuna> split counts are positive correct?
[14:25:32] <guy2>
[14:28:00] <guy2> no - split counts are negative
[14:28:09] <guy2> i'll repost in 2 minutes...
[14:28:16] <guy2> when the split counts change
[14:30:51] <guy2>
[14:30:56] <mashhad> what jst happened?
[14:31:08] <mashhad> did any news come out?
[14:32:29] <guy2>
[14:33:30] <mashhad> anyways.. L91 out 92.50 -1.50 x 2
[14:33:56] <js> 19K on that 1m bar
[14:35:21] <mashhad> i meant S91 out 92.50 -1.50
[14:35:40] <fspeculator> anyone take it?
[14:36:06] <fspeculator> i did
[14:38:17] <mashhad> not stopped out by 1 tick on the ES!:(
[14:38:32] <fspeculator> mash you were in JP's room?
[14:38:43] <mashhad> i just got in... why?
[14:38:54] <mashhad> did he give a heads up?
[14:39:24] <fspeculator> well you use his method
[14:39:30] <fspeculator> and i don't remember your nick
[14:39:56] <mashhad> ray71
[14:43:49] <tuna> yeah i stopped on er2 too
[14:44:40] <tuna> oil close popapalooza
[14:45:36] <guy> here is ER2 now:
[14:45:41] <guy> and alpha
[14:45:47] <guy2>

[14:46:30] <guy> limit to enter short AB @ 609.6
[14:54:00] <guy> Shorts AB @ 609.2
[14:55:25] <guy> exit stop set AB @ 611.2

[14:56:20] <tuna> a rotation trade guy?
[14:56:43] <guy2>
[14:58:49] <guy> yes tuna: rationale: alpha + DVAH + single
[14:59:25] <guy> that single was bust by 1.2 points right?
[15:00:36] <guy> i don't like the split count of +3 on ER2 here
[15:00:39] <guy2>
[15:01:32] <guy> cancelled all open limit orders
[15:04:40] <guy> still short - that cancel
[15:04:52] <guy> was just for the other limit I had so there wouldn't be any confusion
[15:07:07] <guy> but when i entered that trade i actually moved the other limit
[15:12:12] <tuna> how many tics do u give singles guy?
[15:13:06] <fspeculator> i'm out b/e in YM
[15:13:21] <fspeculator> it's getting too late for reversal
[15:13:29] <mashhad> s 92
[15:13:31] <guy> depends on the strength of alpha tuna
[15:13:41] <tuna> oh
[15:13:52] <guy> weak alpha tight stops
[15:14:03] <guy> strong alpha i have more confidence in the move
[15:14:13] <tuna> ic
[15:14:25] <guy> alpha is weakening now
[15:14:44] <guy> here's a chart:
[15:14:51] <guy2>

[15:15:24] <guy> Covered all Short AB at 608.3 --> + 0.9

[15:15:54] <guy> i'm going to try this short again but higher up if given the chance
[15:16:07] <tuna> nice
[15:18:06] <mashhad> ES is having difficulty breaking 91
[15:20:14] <guy> i see that mash
[15:20:28] <guy> good entry on that short mash - you still short?
[15:20:37] <mashhad> yes
[15:20:41] <mashhad> we will see
[15:20:48] <mashhad> only 1 contract though
[15:20:59] <guy> well it looks like a sounds strategy to me
[15:24:13] <guy> ES chart with alpha:
[15:24:20] <guy2>
[15:24:28] <guy> does yours look the same mash?
[15:25:38] <mashhad> yes
[15:25:45] <guy> good
[15:25:53] <mashhad> i shorted on the 2nd white alpha line
[15:26:21] <mashhad> at 15:11
[15:26:50] <mashhad> ES is very stuborn.. ER is going down easier
[15:27:06] <guy> good move
[15:28:11] <guy> i have to go now
[15:28:15] <guy> but you know what to do
[15:28:22] <guy> make money and don't lose it
[15:28:37] <tuna> yes sir
[15:28:39] <mashhad> i have my profit target st at 89 to b/e for the day
[15:28:56] <guy> :)
[15:29:03] <guy> 89 is a good target here mash
[15:29:18] <mashhad> and if it hits 90, i will set my stop at b/e
[15:29:25] <guy> i was very premature on the alpha trade earlier:
[15:29:25] <guy2>
[15:29:38] <guy> that's good mash - good money management
[15:30:22] <mashhad> ok
[15:30:26] <guy2>
[15:31:35] <mashhad> now with ER k-line turning +, i am wondering if the bottom is at DPOC of ER
[15:32:08] <guy> ignore k-line atm because not at extremes

Session Close: Wed May 25 15:36:14 2005
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