The developments of the last 2 trading days make me consider the whole rise from the post crash bottom to the last week's high as a W2 Kane ABCD:





Timewise it doesn't look good because it rarely happens in a zigzag that CD leg lasts 80 times longer that AB leg. But if it comes to proportions - it's almost perfect: AB and CD legs are nearly equal and whole ABCD retraces between .685 and .786 of the preceding leg down from the top.

Initially I thought that whole zigzag should finish at May 11th high. Now I see that high as a C point of a W4 correction in the CD leg:





The behaviour of the market in the next couple of days should help us jugde whether this interpretation is correct. This is rather important because in such case we should expect a drop to at least 1020 (1.272 external retracement of the ABCD) and probably much lower if W3 down has just started.

REALLY SICK...if people would see this play by play action ...they would think you were from a higher being. (A.K.A....JIMADAMUS)....you wuld just say it is 39,500 hrs of screen time.

Pretty much...

Euro, crude, ES exploding. 'Risk on'. I expect this goes up for awhile now.

Keep in mind, this is extremely weak and the fact that I say I think it may go up for ahwile now is based on the usual games and MRRD's. This is one sick puppy in my opinion, and may 'flash crash' at any time. It may be done going up here at this shortened ABCD. All I do is set up every area on the way up and see what it does and respond. Every time they intervene you can see that as soon as they stop, it drops right down. Until this big correction/bear resumption started, once they started it it took off on its own and fed on itself as the algos took over. Not now. So, although I respect the MRRD's, I am noting this change of character, and will adjust accordingly.

I have three immediate levels on the ES, here at 94, 1104, and 1114, all +/- the usual tolerance. The Euro has a few areas, around 130 and 133, and the DX here at 85.50, 84.80, and 83.90. The Euro areas are big areas, the DX ones are smaller timeframe. Just some things if they want the risk trade again. Who knows, maybe it's done at this ES area. I have no idea, I just respond.

Note the 84 area is the 1.000 ABCD...

82.25 key line and area. Let's see if the move off the ABCD was just a single push, or if the sellers are back.

to the tick...

See what I mean about responding. One may have taken that long area (I didn't), but when it jumped up and then failed right at an expected spot, that was a big clue it may be a 'W2' for the bigger bearish ABCD, and down it went. Now, is this an ABCD here, or a 'game it' bounce spot only, and then down, or just down in a 'W3' here? All I can do is react to what it does at the key spots I watch. I always go in to an area with a premise, but then I see what it does. I don't create my immediate premise from what it does, I respond to what it does depending on if it is in line, or not in line, with my premise.

Originally posted by jimkane

...BTW, those puts priced at I think it was 1.09 are now 5.76...

Now 7.00...

I suspect a big run up in GLOBEX and a huge gap up over that line. We'll see. The weekends are getting longer and longer as the inevitable blowup gets closer.