The developments of the last 2 trading days make me consider the whole rise from the post crash bottom to the last week's high as a W2 Kane ABCD:





Timewise it doesn't look good because it rarely happens in a zigzag that CD leg lasts 80 times longer that AB leg. But if it comes to proportions - it's almost perfect: AB and CD legs are nearly equal and whole ABCD retraces between .685 and .786 of the preceding leg down from the top.

Initially I thought that whole zigzag should finish at May 11th high. Now I see that high as a C point of a W4 correction in the CD leg:





The behaviour of the market in the next couple of days should help us jugde whether this interpretation is correct. This is rather important because in such case we should expect a drop to at least 1020 (1.272 external retracement of the ABCD) and probably much lower if W3 down has just started.

I think this market may be in a lot of trouble. Rolling dead off this ABCD in here is very dangerous. Maybe it just goes to a 1.272 and that's it, bit the bigger picture says we may be in a 'W3', and the area for that is around 900. And ABCD forms around 1014, and the 'termination' area for a 5-wave is around 800. We'll see, I'm just mentioning some areas if it is indeed 'in trouble'.

Originally posted by jimkane

Originally posted by jimkane

...BTW, those puts priced at I think it was 1.09 are now 5.76...

Now 7.00...

Now 7.50. Up almost 7-fold since Tuesday.

Okay, I gave all I had to give today. I won't be doing this every day, for sure. The market is awesome, so I gave a lot today for people to go back and study. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Amazing, amazing SL and lower // here at this 1.128 area off the ABCD. Very, very interesting spot. Watch this like a hawk.

Thanks JIM ..appreciate all the work.

Sure, Eric.

They're still selling. Since the gov simply won't allow steady selling (a reverse of what led it up for the last 14+ months), and I feel it must go down at some point, that only leaves a crash they simply can't control, and that's what I suspect is most likely. We'll see.

Today I had to take care of some other things. We have a 100-year flood here in Poland and I live in the area which potentially may be flooded. The highest tide here is expected this night. It looks OK for now but you never know with water. If you won't hear from me for some time that would mean that I was forced to leave my house ...

Sorry, jarek, sounds like some of the stories from living up here. Good luck, and hope to hear from you in here soon.

Chart

Al Kamego

Futures are on fire! Up 12.50 off that 61.50 low. Suh-mokin'.

I suspect a big run up in GLOBEX and a huge gap up over that line. We'll see. The weekends are getting longer and longer as the inevitable blowup gets closer.