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Es short term trading 6-14-10

set to gap up into key general I have a short overal bias for today
s 97.50...94.75 should print again
SOLD -1 /ESU0 @1097.50... we averaged at the same point...

short still looks good to me though. $tick divergence
hoping to add at 1100 RAT before air fills below
airt at 98 even
so from the DARs potential high for day could be 1107?
1107 not out of the question...

5 day average of SEP H versus Open comes in today at 1107.25

5 day average of L versus open comes in today at 1086.55

these are just averages.
Kools cycle short term peak here
Kools short term peak up here
SEP contract, High week before this past week was 1100.75. usually first test sees some sort of rejection.

but in a slightly bigger picture, fact that price is above H of the most recent week is a positive, but price usually searches for confirmation of an initial move and a move back into the consolidation of Late Friday (confirmation) would be totally natural some time over the next day. That consolidation is 85-77 area (SEP contract)
I think this is all a fake today to draw in longs money...only to retrace and go down this week below last weeks close...maybe not today but by tuesdays close..
Originally posted by BruceM

I trade mostly by the shape of the profile and what I expect to fixed stops aren't for me either. How about studying how often we penetrate consecutive RATs without retracing RATS...

In other words, How often do we rally 5 or 6 Rats in a row before we retrace 2 RATS....? Perhaps an idea for further reseacrh...Look at the 25 point increments...We've rallied form roughly the 1050 RAT to the 1100 RAT...will we trade a third Major RAT before we retrace one RAT back to 75..? I don't know but I'm throwing out the concept..

I'm rambling....Feng...will you risk One RAT to make two rats...will you sell the 93.75 to get it down to 81.25 and risk trade back to 1100 RAt...risk one RAT to make two rats...? How often will you be right....How about the HOUR closes..probably more powerful then the 30 minute..?

If I had the time I'd teach you my concept of trennd changes but it would take time that I don't have right now...

Summers coming and air pockets will start to get filled in even more so that concept of risking 10points or 3 times the size of the air pocket may offer good results...

Lets catch up again on this...tell me your basic premise with your method when u have time
Originally posted by feng456

Bruce I'm trying to build my trading around your rat levels and your DAR projections. The main problem I'm having is where to put my stops.

i.e. i went short at 93.75 RAT expecting 85 before close, where should I put my stop?

Got any ideas on how I can figure that out? I don't want to set a definite arbitrary number unless I have to.

To simplify all that, basically find whatever works...

but i don wanna! *whiney voice
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