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ES short term trading 6-30-10

In my opinion the market tipped its hand yesterday signalling lower ,possibly much lower, prices coming in the next few weeks/months.Try as i might i cant find any longer term projection, or for that matter, fib relationship of any kind that says 1030 could be the bottom of the decline which started in April!. Therefore, from a kools tools perpective, There are lower prices coming soon! so like everyone else, i expect an oversold market to muster a dead cat bounce of some sort ,but likely from slightly lower prices first. The closest numbers i can find are the original high of 1129.50 to its initial move low was 1103.25. this has a 4.236 termination ratio of around 1018.50 and if A was from 1211.25 to 1032.75 ans B was complete at 1129.50 then C=.618A AT 1019.25. Look folks, i know im really reaching here but,1030 is NOT 'THE BOTTOM'And i dont think 1018-19 is either (we'll see the 900 's at some point.) but this zone might be good for a dead cat bounce. right now i have short term projections around 1023.50-1024.75 which could do the same. Its also possible of course that the bounce has already started , we'll just have to see what develops today . Anything is possible today, but by all rights seasonally thurs and friday should have some upside pressure. The main point of this discourse is that much lower prices are ahead in the next month or so (950-960?) in my opinion. As always time will tell!... good luck gang!
potentially bullish action short-term

5 day average of H versus Open comes in today at 1037.00, I have noticed that moves above this level before 11 o'clock can be bullish if retracement finds support at that level,
Originally posted by BruceM

Piker, if u r here...I added 6 on last because it was 5 highr highs, into key number and high ticks....and air below...took 8 off at 38.75 as that was trade into 5 minute air...working 4 now...

only mentioning contract amounts because u asked about it the other day...otherwise real point of this is the higher highs, ticks and key number

I think 36 and lower is comming...hopefully

Yes, I'm here. I am really beginning to understand the morning fade trade and I am starting to get my feet wet using your illustrations.

One thing I don't understand is why you didn't pick up an initial trade to the long side first. I went long at 36 to 41. It was a quick, strong move and really the fastest profit of the day in my experience. After that trade was over, then I joined you in shorting at 41. Just covered at 38.

That first long trade was a good trade though. I love fading along with you but I just can't pass up that initial run. But I don't trade near the amount of contracts you do so I have to make each trade worth my while. I mean, you put on 10+ on this short? Wow.
again shorting 40.25....tricky now as 37.75 has been tested
long 1039 against 1038 support, target 1044
Originally posted by phileo

long 1039 against 1038 support, target 1044

ugh... stopped out 1pt loss
here comes the 2.618 at 1036 my chart indicated... wow! sold again at 40 even covered at 37.50.. one only, but what a morning!
well Piker, I think you should tell us why YOU were specifically long from 36 - sounds so easy...? perhaps over time we can follow your trade and incorporate it into our rountine...I can find only one reason to be long and I took that 2 contract long in the O/N session..

flat at 39 on all...hour run coming and I'm not sure.....will sell again if they run that Hour high
gotta run... later gang.. Good luck!
short light at 40.25 again!! hour run out still in my mind
"went short at 38 even. I had a bearish bias this afternoon and after the fake breakout to the upside it confimed me going short"
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