Here is an updated version of my longer term bearish TD ABCD in ES:





It has some drawbacks (especially the impulsive look of the potential BC leg) but the decisive break beneath the rising TL should confirm it.
Otherwise the rise from early July low might develop into a bigger ABCD itself:

This is a great example of trendline creep, and 'normally' that would break hard to the downside in my experience. But, as I mentioned in the past, since this manipulation market started off that March '09 low, I have seen the ES break up against trendline creep almost every time, and I think previously I had either one or no examples of that happening in all my years at this. Now it's almost guaranteed, it seems, it won't break through the line. All that matters is to have some edge in what it is more likely to do, and if what that is changes, one must adapt.

P.S. This sure looks like it is about to break to the downside as it used to in the old days. Watch for a quick snap reverse and big buy program if it does...

Okay, the line is violated, and there is no flush. TL creep leads to a big flush when it triggers, and the line gave way here and nothing is happening. That is just a total change in character in the market, to see that.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

We know that when a flat correction lasts disproportionally long comparing to the preceding leg, it often results in a relatively strong aftermove. Will it be the case this time?

'Normally' I'd say yes, and expect such a move. But in today's world, I'd ask myself what the opposite was, and expect that. And lo and behold the market started to rise... Rise my son, and walk again.

Originally posted by jimkane

... And lo and behold the market started to rise...

We still can't exclude this bullish ABCD mentioned by you earlier in the day. Maybe not best looking, but who cares these days ...

My ABCD is between your A and B points. Work that one up. This action now would be part of a 'W3' off of that.

Note the 'W2' ABCD in that scheme (between your C and D points).

Here you are:

We would need a strong overnight upward acceleration in the case of the last setup

I guess they will have to be happy to close this near the high tick for the move, and right at the RTH HOD. I know I'm happy with how that coil play played out.