Here is an updated version of my longer term bearish TD ABCD in ES:





It has some drawbacks (especially the impulsive look of the potential BC leg) but the decisive break beneath the rising TL should confirm it.
Otherwise the rise from early July low might develop into a bigger ABCD itself:

... and yet they try to reverse it from the most obvious spot. They really know when to press the pedal:

Yes, and they sure are acting like they are prepping it for a run until the close. Whether they can do it or not we'll see, but they sure are acting like that's what they have in mind.

Everyone notice the TD at the LOD? If the bulls plan to continue to run this, that would be a good spot. If they fail here that says something to me. Yes there are other places, and an EXP would be a really good spot, too, but failure to take advantage of this TD is surely a clue.

Originally posted by jimkane

Everyone notice the TD at the LOD? ...

Is this what I called 4PT on my first chart today?

Actually, yes, that's the one.

Be very cautious right here...

Notice this is a possible bearish 4PT, with an ABCD in the CD leg, to the tick by my data, and it surely 'sees' it. I'm waiting for this little bullish flat/chop ABCD here to send it up and over, but you never know, it may respect this area. I don't think the odds favor that, but it may...

Here are the 2 patterns:

Nice chart. So it will likely postpone the decision to the last minute, and try to suck both sides in before taking them all out. But I suspect the odds stongly favor an upside resolution, so maybe a sharp sweep down and then an even sharper snap up with follow through. Who knows, but that's what I suspect is most likely. Next most likely, to me, is just a sharp upside explosion.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I guess they will have to be happy to close this near the high tick for the move, and right at the RTH HOD. I know I'm happy with how that coil play played out.