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Es short term trading 9-28-10

Market will try to decide today if yesterdays low range was nothing more than a consolidation and acceptance of prices before the move higher.

Key zone is 40 - 41.50 to resolve. On downside is 32-33 as that is current O/N low and the open prices from Fridays trade.

Further upside is 47.75 - 50 as we had volume in Sunday O/N session , a key Rat and an O/N high sunday night.

Let see where we open in relation to YD RTH trade
O/N declined below and back above 50% retrace level. Above is strength, below is weakness.
1140.75 the 50% level for this retrace upward and same applies.
Keep in mind 1124.75, the previous high that took so long to break, and 1117, low of the ramp up wave that went to 1150. Below those is the gap at 1107.
Above is the second set of fibs and 1150.
Click image for original size
es 12 10 9282010 60 min222
27.50 28 is next downside key and looking to buy down there in that area
better late to post than never. (especially when it's something you can calculate and follow yourself)

I was busy in a trade and just concentrating on it, sorry.

618 extension down of Monday's range was 1132.00,

the observation is that if price prints the 618 extension, the historical odds are very HIGH that a full extension will print (full extension means Monday's RTH range subtracted from Monday's RTH Low (or added to Monday's High))

full extension was 1128.75.
31 is ultimate goal as that is where the volume started from report....this 27.50 has been interesting as many trends have included that we need to be careful of that price probe!

open at key number of 40 and immediate drive away kept me off fades earlier.....more attractive down here...lots of air above
34.5 the 50% retrace
33.75 the 50% of the large wave 1117-1150
1st move down,2nd up
Keep in mind that 1129 here was a psych level from days of yor but the actual prior high is 1124.75 on this contract if both those S levels lost sometime today.
I never like initiating inside a big hour range like this...

Do they want the open print and new Highs?
Do they want to test below 31.25 where the buying tail is and try for new lows?

Just not sure so I'll sit this one out until one of those two events take place
gaps forming the one at 36.25 NOW!
on 38 short....
hoping they don't go for a 40 retest before trip run and micro gap fill