The question is: was this already it, 1 day and 9 points away from our perfect 'symmetrical' target or yet it needs to reach the 1.000 ABCD regardless of the time factor:





This 3D at spike line might suggest the former, but if it breaks to the upside it might break the whole ABCD as well and go up, up and away as per Jim's scenario

jarek! Yeah, exactly, it's in that category of 'talking myself into it'. It could play out, but the odds are for a strong upside breakout, I feel. 'Context' trumps any setup, no matter how great, essentially always, in my experience. And although this area you show has produced the smallest of initial reactions, it is already starting to push up again. They want 'up' so bad it's just crazy. Jobs report bad, market up. The mortgage scandal worsening by the minute (which should really depress housing prices and start the next leg down there), market up. It doesn't matter what the news or reality is, market up. End of story.

I agree that the situation of bears looks really hopeless and this fact in itself is the only reason it could turn here. There are no other reasons.

Yes, this is the most hopeless I have seen it look for the bears. The VIX is breaking out to the downside, the bulls % is getting extreme, QE2 is fully priced in and fully expected, all bad news is not only ignored, it is relished, it seems like the trade is crowded, just as it fully tests super-key areas across the board. What I wouldn't give for the setups to play out. But, it is what it is, will do what it will do, and I go with the flow. It's amazing what trillions and trillions can do, especially when combined with complete and utter corruption and a copious dose of completely illegal behind the scenes activity.

As an excercise today I'll try to look through the eyes of bears until our setup on daily isn't completely invalidated:

Good exercise jarek, I'm doing it myself. Keep in mind, especially in this market lately, reversal areas have been processes, not events. Go back and look and see on the charts. This is far from triggered, and could rise a bit more and still be fully valid. So, it is actually far from over, far from decided. And the fact that it looks 110% bullish here is actually a good sign for the setup. So, time will tell, and if I get a trigger appropriate to the timeframe, I am planning on not ignoring it, 'just in case'.

For example we have a failure of this tiny bullish abcd:

Yes, the taking out of the b point you have marked triggered me into intraday short bias. Again 'in case' the intermediate 'context' starts to assert itself.

This may also be seen as a 'failed' 3D into a double top:

I probably exaggerated a bit with this 'failed' 3D, but it definitely was a 3-4-5 sequence with 1.272 into the top:

For those that are my students, there was an earlier trigger if I was very confident in the HOD as a very well-defined, specific key area. Please don't show the trigger or the how and why in here, though, as it is part of the proprietary material covered under the non-disclosure agreement.

I mention all this because this is a combined forum, for both book set buyers and mentor students. If the books set buyers are offended by this, I can split the mentor students off into another forum. I have to admit, though, I'd spend most of my time there, so think over what you might want to say, and what actions that may induce me to take... This is a great resource, but I want to get my students to think about things, too, and not pass up opportunities to make sure they review certain chart specifics. That requires me to talk in a cloaked way. That should in no way make this forum any less useful for book set buyers, or any less valuable (especially for a free resource).

Too frickin' funny

Originally posted by jarek

Yep - very interesting finish to what looked like yet another day from "Reminiscences of a Grilled Bear"