ES clearly likes to close at a key area as Jim pointed out many times recently:




Friday's breakout after a trendline creep was rather unconvincing and the green set could be still in force. However the journey to its downsloping ML would be rather uncommon taking into account the time of the year...

Now, what could burst the commodity run? Only one thing in my mind, and that is a reversal by the Fed. Commodities will go down (I mean really down, not a simple correction, but like crude at $40, $30, even $20, true market pricing and deflation) when he tightens, end of story, in my opinion. That point is supposedly years, if not literally decades away. Unless... When the new congress comes in on Jan 3, with my hero Ron Paul trying to dismantle the Fed, maybe something changes? It's a lot to hope for, but it would stop commodities in their tracks and turn them down.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-taylor-says-play-coming-end-global-reliquification-shorting-australia

Okay, do or die time. Now we see (not that it matters, the last hour before a holiday and zero volume). Initial push up to an expected area, and a reaction down. This is it, decision time. Right now they have to decide. Keep in mind, where is the most critical area where they could close this for the week???

So far, so good. Staying long side bias until the close, and if it reverses, that is it for the day. I suspect this one will play out nicely in the last half hour, but you never know.

Watch this .447 here at 52.25. It may be the last shot today for a strong down move.

Are they ready to make it 1-2-3 in the other direction now?

Time to call it the week. Happy Christmas to all!

Same to you, jarek.

Okay, another spot on read. Made it up to 53.25 so far, right back to the price flow. Not a claim, but an observation supported by posts in here: made the read going down, made the read for the terminus, made the read for the long side. Not bad, epsecially for a crap action day and the S&P at a 17-year narrow range.