ES clearly likes to close at a key area as Jim pointed out many times recently:




Friday's breakout after a trendline creep was rather unconvincing and the green set could be still in force. However the journey to its downsloping ML would be rather uncommon taking into account the time of the year...

jim is ABSOLUTELY CORRECT... i am doing what i am doing because of my collecting and my stacking of charts... AAPL was not in isolation... look where my favorite trader TNA was at same moment... at the very least i am expecting1.27/1.27 abcd.

Okay, crude is exploding.

Looks like Gold may choose to respect the KZ of the whole drop:

I hope so... I need gold to go way down. I want everyone who wants to buy to have one last great opportunity (this is my opinion, anyway, that it will be the last chance for a better price, and we likely won't get it).

So, crude is over $90 a barrel, and the economy sucks with endless millions unemployed. I heard that if you account for everyone who gave up, everyone who is part-time but wants full-time, and so on, the unemployment rate is actually 23%-27% (depending on how you count them and the methodology used).

Now, imagine the world truly recovers strongly, growth is off the charts worldwide, everyone is back to work, all those idle factories where capacity utilization is barely over 70%, they all crank up full throttle, all those millions are back at work, just like everyone wants. Oil demand would skyrocket. So, oil would go to $95? Too funny. Oil would go nuts. What, $200? $300?

No one wants oil right now and it is approaching $100, pump gas is way over $3 here (about $3.20-$3.40). Everyone wants recovery, but what will happen to oil if we get it? Not to mention Bern-Qwacke's trillions haven't kicked in yet, and no matter what you have heard, I am of the opinion that he can not pull any of it back no matter what.

Not only would it be politically impossible to tighten in the early part of a recovery, to pull it back he has to sell treasuries and mortgage backed securities into the open market by the trillions, which would dump the prices and goose the rates way up. That would kill the recovery and push the government's costs way up. He can never withdraw that liquidity ever, in my opinion (and many others agree). Once that money gets velocity, crude will head for $1,000 a barrel, I think.

This is a perfect storm if we get recovery. Thankfully (as sick as this sounds) I don't think recovery is even remotely possible...

Time to be back on the long side?

Very weak bounce, despite crude still rising.

Very interesting geometry in Bonds:




Turns out that my 3D was a part of a bigger 3D that played out exactly to the upper green ML.
Another possible third low on a spike line formed here at lines intersection in KZ.

I'm wondering if this won't 'top' right after the end of the year. They are running this into the year end for obvious reasons, but perhaps it starts to drop as soon as the new year starts. The thing is, this is likely to go up until it collapses as a result of a collapse in the system, perhaps a catastrohpic collapse in the system. Meredith Whitney says she sees 50-100 or more muni defaults in 2011. 50 to 100 cities or more 'going under' this upcoming year? Yeah, that is priced in.

Point is, once the ponzi starts to unwind, it would likely all go in a flash, like 2008 on steriods. The ponzi is bigger now than ever, by a lot. So, maybe a little Jan correction, then up again until it unwinds. Maybe it just keeps going up until it unwinds. Bullish sentiment just hit highs not seen since... drum roll... Oct 2007. But, it could get even higher.

Anyone besides roofer watching the big dog (AAPL)? This has been fascinating. It starts down, then bounces up to a near exact area I was watching, a key line at a .786 to the penny. It drops to an area I'd expect, then ramps up violently, right to my key line at an .886 within less than a penny. It then drops to another line, explodes up to retest that line and .886, within a penny. Then right back down to that line that sent it up. It is just incredible. Anyone who thinks all that is random...

Okay, another spot on read. Made it up to 53.25 so far, right back to the price flow. Not a claim, but an observation supported by posts in here: made the read going down, made the read for the terminus, made the read for the long side. Not bad, epsecially for a crap action day and the S&P at a 17-year narrow range.