ES clearly likes to close at a key area as Jim pointed out many times recently:




Friday's breakout after a trendline creep was rather unconvincing and the green set could be still in force. However the journey to its downsloping ML would be rather uncommon taking into account the time of the year...

Originally posted by jarek

Bears need to defend the recent high if they want to find anything under the Christmas tree:

Still fighting for even slightest gifts after a year like this:

Great charts, guys. Very nice work. I appreciate all the work posting that both of you have done. You guys make the forum.

I just heard the S&P has traded in the narrowest range in 17 years! And the AAII bulls jumped again, and the spread between bulls and bears is the widest in about 6.5 years. The funny thing, though, is that that would normally imply a market top, if not for the times we live in. Awhile back, and I'm 'paraphrasing' here, the bulls were extreme, again implying a market top, and we had a tiny little correction, and one week later the bears were extreme! It swung all the way across the spectrum in one report!

The next week, given the correction was like one or two days or something like that, it swung all the way back to the bullish extreme! That is totally insane, unheard of (at least to me), and implies even that mechanism is totally and utterly broken. So, I think all we can get from the monster bullish sentiment is that the market may drop a few points for a day, at some point, and the sentiment will get so bearish so fast that it will turn immediately back up. Oh, brother.

For the first time in a while ES looks responsive to bearish ABCDs, although it's difficult to draw conclusions on such a narrow day:

Bonds didn't respect my previous bullish ABCD, but there might be another chance:

Another new high for my DBC swing play. Look at corn, beans, coffee, sugar, cotton (except today), lumber, copper, cattle, and on and on, not to mention crude pushing on $92, unleaded, heating oil (poor, poor consumers...). I know, commodities are going to crash any time now. But until then...

Explain to me, again, how heavily rising prices help the middle class? Rising prices create jobs and stimulates economic growth? The idiotic morons are confusing a implies b with b implies a. They don't understand simple math/logic principles. Strongth growth implies inflation. a implies b. Fine. Let's say that's true. They conclude, then, b implies a (no basis exists in mathematics/logic for this), or strong inflation implies growth. Say what?????? Seriously, that's the premise behind running prices up on all of us, or so they say. I sure wish commodities would crash like all the experts say, but I just don't see it.

And yes, I'm short side intraday bias, but the volume/liquidity is so low I'm not sure trading is a good idea...

There should be no doubts now that this is W3 of the move off the pattern:

Technically I couldn't agree more, jarek. But my gut says that 49.25 may be it. I'd love it to drop more, and I hope it does, but I think that may be all they'll let it go. Crossing my fingers that read is wrong...

I'm going to change my mind on this. ABCD at .300/.447 overlap, multiple line convergence, plunging move into area, I'm back to long side bias off this. But there is just no volume, so not only could anything happen, I just don't see enough movement that the reward potential is there.

Okay, another spot on read. Made it up to 53.25 so far, right back to the price flow. Not a claim, but an observation supported by posts in here: made the read going down, made the read for the terminus, made the read for the long side. Not bad, epsecially for a crap action day and the S&P at a 17-year narrow range.