ES is shaping up nicely for my new scenario, especially with the smallest Schiff set respected very well so far:



However the W4 triangle on the main index could have already been completed on Friday and in such case the usual Sunday/Monday procedure should take place from the start of trading.

While posting this long term Crude chart few months ago I was wondering what could be the trigger for the journey to the upsloping major ML:



I think nobody should have any doubts today

That CL chart shows why I think well over $200 is possible. As far as the ES, I have noticed that everyone everywhere is calling for the scenario you have laid out, saying the triangle would be formed after hitting the lower area, then way up and over. I rarely see anything happen as decribed by 27 zillion blogs... Can't wait to see, though.

even the mad short seller has agreed to honor the bullish case in oil...

Crude, silver, and gold just so strong in here tonight...

Originally posted by jimkane

... I rarely see anything happen as decribed by 27 zillion blogs...

So maybe they turn back up here halfway through?

W4 triangle still not out of the question until the move from LOD will not prove itself to be a small W3. In order to do this it needs to take out all potential ABCDs on the way up. First one is this bearish 4PT:

4PT taken out already, next is standard 1.000 ABCD:

Not 1.000, but .886 standard bearish ABCD formed at a line here:

The fact that such small bullish KZ ABCD takes over much bigger bearish ABCD at important line could bode well for the move off LOD:



But a fake breakout above this line is still possible at this stage

... and if we re-anchor our downsloping set to a secondary bottom on March 2nd, then we come back to a 1.000 standard ABCD at line:



This move off LOD still hasn't proved to be W3 of the move off Friday's bottom

yes, thanks jim

Originally posted by jimkane
Hopefully at least this leaves you with some understanding of my reasons.